تبیین تاب‌آوری اجتماعی بافت تاریخی در مواجهه با زلزله :نقش فضا های عمومی در زیرمحله ها(مطالعه موردی محله اوچدکان اردبیل)

Introduction

Historic urban districts are exceptionally susceptible to earthquake damage, a vulnerability driven by physical decay, constricted alleyways, outdated infrastructure, and dense populations. While these areas hold immense cultural significance, they embody a core paradox: a powerful sense of community and rich social capital exist alongside profound structural fragility. The historic Ochdokan neighborhood in Ardabil, Iran - spanning 18.60 hectares in the city center - perfectly illustrates this dilemma. The area is home to numerous registered monuments from the Safavid, Qajar, and Pahlavi periods. Yet over 70 percent of its buildings are structurally unsound, characterized by inadequate access routes and a critical shortage of safe, open spaces. Globally, rapid urbanization has amplified earthquake risks, prompting a shift from reactive crisis management to proactive resilience-building, a principle central to the Sendai Framework (UNISDR, 2015). In historic areas, where heritage protection laws restrict extensive physical alterations, strengthening the social dimension emerges as a vital and complementary strategy. Social resilience is particularly crucial in the pre-disaster phase. This study explores the dynamic socio-physical resilience of the Ochdokan neighborhood by employing the Analytic Network Process (ANP) within the theoretical context of Panarchy.This study primarily aims to assess social resilience to earthquakes and to formulate strategies for its enhancement. Specific objectives include identifying key resilience components, analyzing spatial variations across different sub-neighborhoods, and evaluating the role of public spaces, particularly schools and mosques. The central research question is formulated as follows: What is the current state of social resilience in Ochdokan, and how can it be improved? The hypothesis proposes that social capital and place attachment, when reinforced through public spaces, significantly enhance community preparedness and adaptive capacity.



Methodology

This applied research utilized a descriptive-analytical approach with a mixed-methods (quantitative-qualitative) design. Data were gathered using three instruments: a perception questionnaire for residents (160 households), an evaluation questionnaire for experts (10 specialists), and pairwise comparisons via the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The resident sample size was determined using Cochran’s formula for a finite population and selected through stratified cluster-random sampling across four sub-neighborhoods: central-mosque, schools, historical monuments, and market-periphery. The reliability of the questionnaires was confirmed with Cronbach’s alpha coefficients of 0.78 for residents and 0.82 for experts.

The ANP modeling accounted for interdependencies and feedback loops among the criteria. The average Consistency Ratio (CR) was 0.024 - well below the 0.10 threshold - indicating a high degree of model reliability. Final weights, derived from the limit matrix, prioritized social capital (0.34), human capital (0.26), quality of life and identity (0.20), demographic characteristics (0.12), and physical-social dimensions (0.08). The ELECTRE method was then employed to rank the four sub-neighborhoods based on the ANP weights. Spearman correlation tests were conducted to examine the relationships between school-related components and social resilience indicators.



Results and Discussion

The findings reveal an uneven spatial distribution of social resilience across the Ochdokan neighborhood. Notable strengths were observed in place attachment and social cohesion, with mean scores ranging from 4.3 to 4.8. These strengths are associated with long-term residency (an average of 35 years) and a high rate of homeownership (78%). Schools and mosques function as vital hubs for social interaction, identity formation, and potential emergency shelters. However, significant weaknesses persist in risk awareness, practical skills, institutional trust, and access to safe open spaces. Physical conditions remain a critical concern, with over 70 percent of buildings requiring urgent retrofitting.

The ELECTRE ranking placed the schools sub-neighborhood at the highest resilience level (0.88), followed by the central-mosque (0.75), historical monuments (0.68), and market-periphery (0.48). Spearman correlation analysis confirmed strong positive relationships: the social role of schools with social capital (r=0.639, p<0.001), accessibility with participation (r=0.640, p<0.001), and parental involvement with social participation (r=0.612, p<0.01). These results align with the Panarchy framework, which views resilience as a dynamic, cyclical process. While strong social assets provide a foundation for adaptation and transformation, deficiencies in awareness and physical infrastructure limit the system’s absorptive and adaptive capacities. Public spaces - particularly schools - effectively bridge the social and physical dimensions by serving as centers for learning, coordination, and emergency response. Expert assessments corroborated the residents’ perceptions of poor physical conditions.



Conclusion

The Ochdokan neighborhood possesses valuable social strengths, centered on place attachment and community cohesion around key institutions.

However, it suffers from deficiencies in risk awareness ,institutional preparedness, and safe infrastructure. Improving resilience requires an integrated approach that addresses both social and physical dimensions. Schools play a pivotal dual role and should be prioritized for structural retrofitting, the enhancement of open spaces, and the strengthening of socio-cultural programs. A "community first, physical-second" approach effectively leverages existing social capital for sustainable interventions. The following actions are recommended: (1) structural retrofitting of schools to serve as multi-functional resilience hubs; (2) improving open spaces and accessibility to facilitate social interaction and pre-disaster education; and (3) enhancing the socio-cultural role of schools through the active participation of residents, parents, and stakeholders. This integrated model offers practical guidance for promoting earthquake resilience in historic urban fabrics while simultaneously protecting cultural heritage.



Keywords

Urban Resilience, Ochdokan Historical Neighborhood, Earthquake, Social Resilience, Analytic Network Process, Public Spaces, Panarchy Framework, Schools.



Funding

There is no funding support.

Authors’ Contribution

Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.

Conflict of Interest

Authors declared no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.