ارزیابی راهبردی مدیریت پسماند شهری با رویکرد ترکیبی مطالعه موردی: شهر خوی

Expanded Abstract

1. Introduction and Problem Statement



Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) has emerged as one of the most critical socio-environmental and managerial challenges of contemporary urban planning, particularly within rapidly developing countries. In the era of Anthropocene, global urbanization is advancing at an unprecedented pace, directly resulting in altered consumer behaviors, rising living standards, and a massive surge in the volume and complexity of solid waste generated. According to global statistics, the average daily waste generation per capita is approximately 1.1 kg, and without strategic interventions, the global annual accumulation of municipal waste is projected to exceed 3.4 billion tonnes by the year 2050. Within the national context of Iran, the daily waste generation per capita is estimated at 700 grams. If left unmanaged, this volume creates catastrophic ecological footprints. The generation of highly toxic leachate, the release of greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4CH4​) and carbon dioxide (CO2CO2​), soil contamination, and the proliferation of disease vectors are typical outcomes of inadequate municipal waste disposal systems.



These environmental challenges impose heavy financial burdens on municipal administrations and municipal budgets. The city of Khoy, situated strategically in West Azerbaijan Province, stands as the second-most populous urban area in the province, recording a population of 198,845 in the 2016 national census (and approximately 348,664 including its surrounding suburban areas). Despite its regional significance, Khoy’s waste management framework continues to rely on traditional, unsustainable practices. Therefore, this study conducts a comprehensive, multi-criteria strategic assessment of municipal solid waste management in Khoy City to transition from traditional disposal to an integrated, sustainable, and scientifically optimized management system.

2. Methodology



This research is applied in its objective and utilizes a mixed-method (quantitative-qualitative), descriptive-analytical, and survey-based methodology to evaluate and formulate waste management strategies. The methodological framework is constructed to integrate qualitative paradigms with mathematical decision-making algorithms. The target population of the study is divided into two distinct groups:



Academic and Executive Experts: This group consists of 15 key informants, including municipal directors, environmental specialists, waste management practitioners, and academic professors in urban planning. Due to the specialized nature of the topic, a purposive and snowball sampling technique was used to select these experts.

The Citizenry of Khoy: This group represents the general public. Utilizing Cochran’s formula, the minimum required sample size was calculated at 384 citizens, selected through a stratified random sampling approach across different municipal districts.



Data collection instruments were diverse, combining qualitative tools such as semi-structured interviews, field investigations, and documentary reviews, with quantitative questionnaires. These questionnaires included a Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) pairwise comparison matrix, a strategic evaluation matrix based on SWOT factors, and a public participation assessment questionnaire. To guarantee the academic reliability and validity of the research instruments, the qualitative phase utilized expert panel validation, while the quantitative phase employed Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) to confirm construct validity. The internal consistency of the questionnaires was verified by a Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.82. In addition, the consistency ratio of the pairwise comparison matrices was kept below the threshold of 0.1, ensuring the reliability of the expert judgments. Qualitative content analysis and thematic coding were carried out using MAXQDA software, while quantitative data processing, F-AHP calculations, and TOPSIS strategic rankings were executed using SPSS, MATLAB, and Microsoft Excel.

3. Findings



The diagnostic and quantitative evaluation of Khoy’s current solid waste situation reveals that the city generates an average of 100 tonnes of municipal waste daily, which translates to a total annual weight of 36,500,000 kilograms. Based on an average waste density of 350 kg/m3kg/m3, the annual volume of waste generated is calculated at 104,286 cubic meters. To evaluate future spatial demands, demographic projections were conducted. Although the 2016 census indicated a minor negative population growth rate of approximately -0.1% due to rural-urban migration patterns, the planning horizon for the next 20 years (up to the year 2036/1415 AH) predicts a stabilized population of 194,905. Assuming the per capita waste generation rates remain constant, the cumulative volume of municipal solid waste over this 20-year period will reach 2,083,635 cubic meters.



If the city continues to use the sanitary landfill trench method—with typical dimensions of 10×410×4 meters, a depth of 4 meters, a 4-meter safety buffer between trenches, and an effective land utilization efficiency of 50%—the net area required for waste disposal is estimated at 520,908 square meters. Consequently, the gross land area required for the landfill site is calculated to be 1,041,817 square meters.



Furthermore, a comprehensive conceptual model was developed by integrating Grounded Theory coding with strategic environmental tools:



Causal Conditions: System optimization, technical infrastructure, private sector engagement, human resource empowerment, specialized management, and green entrepreneurship.

Contextual Conditions: The geographical and strategic location of Khoy, financial limitations, legal loopholes, and socio-cultural barriers.

Intervening Factors: Market instability, environmental fluctuations, institutional mistrust, and lack of administrative transparency.

Core Phenomenon: Strategic assessment of waste management utilizing Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), SWOT matrix, and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA).

Strategies: Standardization, strengthening research centers, strategic planning, sustainable financial mechanisms, organizational support, and public environmental education.

Consequences: Divided into economic efficiency (resource recovery), environmental preservation (pollution reduction), and social well-being (public health).



4. Conclusion



The findings of this study demonstrate that the current waste management system in Khoy is unsustainable and requires a transition toward a proactive, strategic framework. The integration of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the SWOT framework and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) provides a multi-dimensional tool to capture both internal operational capacities and external environmental threats.



A key finding is the critical role of public participation and institutional trust; these act as cross-cutting variables that significantly influence the success of any strategic municipal policy. Without active citizen cooperation in source-separation and recycling initiatives, mechanical and administrative strategies are likely to fail. To achieve long-term sustainability, the municipal administration must prioritize the optimization of the landfill site, implement private-sector partnerships to secure funding, and establish continuous training programs for municipal staff.



Keywords: Municipal Solid Waste, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), Fuzzy AHP, TOPSIS, Sustainable Urban Planning, Khoy City.