شناسایی پیشران‌های توسعه گردشگری با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی مطالعه موردی: شهر مرند

 A B S T R A C T
Urban tourism, as one of the most complex and dynamic sectors of the global economy, requires forward-looking planning and identification of key drivers of development. The present study aims to identify the drivers affecting the development of the tourism industry in Marand and analyze their impact and effectiveness with a futures research approach. The study is applied in terms of purpose and exploratory in nature, combining quantitative and qualitative (mixed) methods. Research data were collected through documentary studies, semi-structured interviews with experts, and the Delphi technique and analyzed using MICMAC software. The findings showed that out of 40 primary drivers in six physical spatial, natural environmental, cultural, socio-cultural, managerial, economic, technological and regional groups, ten key drivers including transportation infrastructure, natural attractions (Mishou Mountains), inter-regional accessibility, border location, private sector investment, national tourism policies, local government support, ecotourism development, historical monument protection and sustainable urban planning play the most role in the future of Marand tourism. The analysis of the cross-effects matrix showed that the system under study is of the type of "specific structure with low controllability by actors" and the bimodal drivers (highly influential and highly influenced) play the most important role in shaping future scenarios.In general, Marand tourism development is more oriented towards physical and managerial spatial indicators than anything else, and desirable scenarios require strengthening coordination between local, national, and private institutions.
Introduction
Tourism development is widely recognized as an important driver of urban and regional growth, particularly in cities with strong natural, cultural, and geographical capacities. In recent years, foresight has emerged as an effective approach for identifying key development drivers, understanding complex interactions among variables, and exploring possible futures. Unlike traditional descriptive studies, foresight-based research helps planners and decision-makers recognize strategic factors and prepare for alternative development paths.
Marand, as one of the major cities of East Azerbaijan Province, has significant tourism potential due to its geographical location, natural attractions, physical expansion, and regional importance. However, despite these advantages, tourism development in the city has not been systematically analyzed through a future-oriented framework. In particular, the role of spatial and physical indicators in shaping tourism development requires further investigation. Accordingly, this study aims to identify the key driving forces of tourism development in Marand using a foresight approach and to determine the extent to which these drivers are associated with spatial and physical indicators. The main research question is: Which spatial-physical indicators have the strongest relationship with the key drivers of tourism development in Marand?
 
Methodology
This study is applied in purpose and exploratory in nature and is based on modern foresight methods. The research adopts a mixed-method approach, combining qualitative and quantitative techniques. Data were collected through documentary studies, field investigations, surveys, open-ended questionnaires, and semi-structured interviews. The study also employed the Delphi technique, structural equation analysis, and MICMAC analysis to identify, validate, and classify the main driving forces.
The participants consisted of experts, specialists, and urban managers of Marand. In the exploratory phase, sampling was carried out through theoretical, purposive, and convenience methods, and snowball sampling was used to complete the expert network. Rather than relying on a fixed sample size, the study followed the principle of theoretical saturation.
The methodological process began with identifying tourism-related variables through literature review and expert consultation. These variables were then refined using expert judgment and Delphi rounds. Finally, MICMAC analysis was applied to determine the degree of influence and dependence among variables, and future tourism scenarios were formulated based on the relationships among the key drivers.
 
Results and Discussion
The findings show that tourism development in Marand is shaped by a complex and multi-layered structure of drivers. Among the various factors identified, spatial-physical and natural variables had the greatest weight and influence. This indicates that the future of tourism in Marand is strongly connected to the city’s territorial and environmental characteristics rather than to a single economic or managerial factor.
The most important driving forces included transport infrastructure, geographical location and proximity to the border, urban landscape and visual quality, pedestrian and cycling routes, and parks and green spaces. These factors reflect the central role of physical accessibility, spatial attractiveness, and the quality of the urban environment in tourism development. In addition, the study identified several more strategic or vital drivers, including natural attractions, especially the Misheh Mountains, private sector investment, national tourism policies, local government support, ecotourism development, heritage protection, and sustainable urban planning.
MICMAC analysis showed that many of these variables fall into either the linkage or influential categories. In other words, they possess high levels of influence and/or dependence, which means that changes in these variables can trigger chain reactions across the broader tourism system. This is an important finding because it suggests that tourism development in Marand cannot be managed by isolated interventions. Instead, coordinated action across infrastructure, environment, policy, and investment is required.
Based on the interaction of these variables, the study proposed three future scenarios:
Desirable Scenario
In this scenario, transport systems are improved, private investment increases, heritage assets are protected, and sustainable planning is implemented. As a result, Marand evolves into a stronger regional tourism destination with a distinct natural-cultural identity.
Static Scenario
In this scenario, tourism development continues to rely mainly on natural attractions without significant infrastructure improvement. Tourism remains seasonal and low in added value, and the city fails to fully capitalize on its potential.
Undesirable Scenario
In this scenario, regional cooperation weakens, investment declines, sustainability is neglected, and environmental and heritage resources deteriorate. This leads to environmental damage, erosion of cultural assets, and a decline in tourist appeal.
The results clearly indicate that the most favorable future is not determined by a single dominant factor, but by the configuration of relationships among multiple drivers. The balance between natural asset protection, access infrastructure, private investment, and policy coordination is essential for sustainable tourism growth.
 
 
Conclusion
The results highlight that tourism development in Marand is not determined by one isolated variable but by the interaction of spatial, natural, managerial, and policy-related drivers. The dominant role of spatial-physical factors shows that the physical environment of the city—its accessibility, visual quality, public spaces, and ecological assets—forms the foundation of tourism competitiveness. This finding emphasizes the need for integrated urban and tourism planning.
The study further suggests that achieving a desirable tourism future for Marand requires balancing several strategic priorities: protecting natural attractions, especially the Misheh Mountains; improving accessibility and transport infrastructure; encouraging private investment; strengthening local institutional support; and implementing sustainable urban policies. Without such coordination, tourism development may remain fragmented and seasonal, and the city may fail to use its full potential.
In conclusion, the research demonstrates that the future of tourism in Marand is highly dependent on key spatial-physical and strategic drivers. A foresight-based approach provides a valuable framework for recognizing these drivers and planning for alternative futures. If supported by coordinated policies and investment, Marand can move toward a more sustainable, competitive, and attractive model of tourism development.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.