ارزیابی نقش اقتصاد چرخشی در تاب‌آوری اقلیمی سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی با میانجی‌گری عوامل نهادی، اجتماعی و زیرساختی (مورد مطالعه: شهر مشهد)

The rapid and unplanned expansion of informal settlements in major cities of developing countries represents one of the most significant challenges of 21st-century urbanization. These settlements, characterized by inadequate infrastructure,, waste generation, and greenhouse gas emissions. In response, the paradigm of a circular economy (CE) has emerged, aiming to close material loops, minimize waste, and extend product lifecycles through strategies like reuse, recycling, and refurbishment. This shift offers significant potential to enhance resource efficiency and reduce the environmental footprint of urban areas. Conceptually, climate resilience refers to the capacity of urban systems and communities to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, and recover from the effects of climate-related shocks and stresses. In informal settlements, resilience is often derived from social capital, local knowledge, and incremental, self-help construction practices rather than formal institutional support. governance deficits, and physical vulnerability, overlooking local production-consumption systems as levers for transformative change. This study addresses this gap by investigating the role of circular economy practices in enhancing the climate resilience of informal settlements. Using the metropolis of Mashhad, Iran, as a case study—where informal settlements house approximately 30% of the city's population.The central hypothesis is that the application of CE principles in informal settlements has a significant positive effect on their climate resilience, mediated by institutional capacity, environmental awareness, and local infrastructure.
This research employs a sequential mixed-methods (quantitative-qualitative) explanatory design, aligned with a positivist philosophy for theory testing and an interpretivist approach for contextual understanding. The study is structured within a conceptual model where Circular Economy is the exogenous variable, Climate Resilience is the endogenous variable, and Institutional Capacity, Environmental Awareness, and Local Infrastructure are the mediating variables. The quantitative phase involved a cross-sectional survey. The statistical population consisted of all households living in Mashhad's eight informal settlement zones. Using Cochran's formula for large populations .The primary data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire based on the conceptual model and literature review. It comprised 63 items measured on a five-point Likert scale, covering constructs of CE (material reuse, construction waste recycling, material flow, local innovation), mediating factors, and climate resilience. The qualitative phase aimed to provide depth and contextual understanding to the quantitative findings. Data were collected through 18 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with a purposively selected sample of key informants, including urban planning experts, municipal managers, informal recycling actors, and long-term local residents. Interviews continued until theoretical saturation was reached. The qualitative data were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using a thematic analysis approach, involving open, axial, and selective coding to identify core themes, categories, and concepts.
Descriptive statistics showed a mean score of 3.41 for CE practices, confirming their empirical presence in the settlements. The mean score for Local Infrastructure (2.94) was comparatively lower, indicating a lack of formal facilities. The structural model analysis provided strong support for the research hypotheses. The path coefficient from Circular Economy to Climate Resilience was positive and significant (β = 0.31, p < 0.001), confirming a direct effect. Furthermore, CE had significant positive effects on all three mediating variables: Institutional Capacity (β = 0.47), Environmental Awareness (β = 0.52), and Local Infrastructure (β = 0.44). Each of these mediators, in turn, had a significant positive effect on Climate Resilience (β = 0.21, 0.29, and 0.26, respectively). The total effect of CE on Climate Resilience was 0.674, with the sum of indirect effects (0.364) being larger than the direct effect, highlighting the crucial mediating role of the three factors. Qualitative findings richly complemented and explained these statistical relationships. The analysis revealed that CE in informal settlements operates not as a formal policy but as a survival and adaptation strategy. Informants emphasized that the lack of formal institutional support does not preclude resilience; instead, local trust networks, social cohesion, and experiential knowledge of climate impacts foster adaptive behaviors. For instance, residents described how shared materials and collective labor were mobilized for rebuilding after floods, demonstrating how informal social capital translates into tangible resilience. The triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data presents a coherent narrative: Informal, community-driven circular practices significantly enhance a settlement's capacity to withstand and recover from climate stresses. This effect is amplified when supported by even minimal institutional coordination, higher levels of place-based environmental awareness, and basic local infrastructure for waste management.
This research demonstrates that the circular economy, when conceptualized as a spatial-social framework rather than solely an industrial model, plays a substantial and multifaceted role in building climate resilience within informal settlements. The findings confirm that CE practices—primarily driven by local ingenuity, economic necessity, and social networks—directly and indirectly strengthen the physical durability of housing, bolster social cohesion for collective action, and enhance economic adaptability to climate shocks. The primary theoretical contribution lies in bridging two largely separate bodies of literature—informal settlement studies and circular economy research—by empirically validating their interconnection in a Global South urban context. It proposes that resilience in informal settings is often cultivated through endogenous, circular systems that operate parallel to, or in the absence of, formal governance structures. From a policy perspective, the results argue for a fundamental shift in urban planning and climate adaptation approaches towards informal settlements. Instead of top-down, standardized interventions or solely formalizing these areas, policymakers should adopt a strategy of recognition, support, and integration. This includes: (1) Recognizing and capacity-building for existing informal recycling networks as valuable social and economic capital; (2) Promoting environmental awareness through trusted local channels and lived experiences; (3) Providing targeted, minimal infrastructure (e.g., local collection points for recyclables) to facilitate existing practices; and (4) Revising building codes and zoning regulations to be more flexible, allowing and incentivizing CE-compliant, climate-adaptive construction methods common in these contexts. In conclusion, the circular economy in Mashhad's informal settlements is not a deficient version of a formal model but a distinct, context-appropriate, and effective mechanism for confronting climatic adversity. The future of urban climate resilience, therefore, may depend significantly on the intelligent recognition of, and collaboration with, these informal pathways of development.