ارزیابی نقش اقتصاد چرخشی در تاب‌آوری اقلیمی سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی با میانجی‌گری عوامل نهادی، اجتماعی و زیرساختی، مطالعه موردی: شهر مشهد

A B S T R A C T
The expansion of informal settlements in Mashhad and their increasing vulnerability to climate hazards necessitate a rethinking of resilience patterns. Circular economy, emphasizing resource optimization and waste reduction, holds potential for enhancing this climate resilience. This study aims to assess the role of circular economy components in the climate resilience of informal settlements and investigate the mediating role of institutional, social, and infrastructural factors. Quantitative data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire administered to 398 households in informal settlements of Mashhad through multistage cluster-random sampling and analyzed using SmartPLS. Qualitative data were gathered from 18 semi-structured interviews with local experts and analyzed using thematic analysis. Circular economy had a positive and significant effect on climate resilience both directly (β=0.31, p<0.001) and through the mediating variables. Circular economy significantly influenced institutional capacity (β=0.47), environmental awareness (β=0.52), and local infrastructure (β=0.44) (p<0.001 for all). These three mediating variables affected climate resilience with coefficients of 0.21, 0.29, and 0.26, respectively. The total effect of circular economy on climate resilience was 0.674, and the sum of indirect effects (0.364) exceeded its direct effect. Informal social networks, material reuse, and local self-organization mechanisms played key roles in strengthening this relationship. Circular economy operates as an adaptive and spontaneous mechanism in informal contexts and can enhance climate resilience even under conditions of weak formal support. This underscores the need for policymakers to pay attention to endogenous capacities and indigenous patterns in urban management and climate planning.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The rapid expansion of informal settlements in developing countries presents a major challenge to 21st-century urbanization. These settlements, characterized by inadequate infrastructure, insecure land tenure, and poor housing, are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Meanwhile, the linear "take-make-dispose" economy in the construction sector drives resource depletion, waste, and emissions. The circular economy (CE) paradigm, based on reuse, recycling, and material efficiency, offers potential to enhance urban sustainability. Climate resilience refers to the capacity of systems and communities to absorb, recover from, and adapt to climate shocks. In informal settlements, resilience often relies on social capital, local knowledge, and self-help practices rather than formal support. However, existing literature largely separates CE (focused on formal industries) from informal settlement studies (focused on poverty and vulnerability). This study addresses this gap by investigating the role of CE practices in enhancing climate resilience in Mashhad, Iran, where informal settlements house about 30% of the population. The central hypothesis is that CE principles positively affect climate resilience, mediated by institutional capacity, environmental awareness, and local infrastructure.
 
Methodology
This study employed a sequential mixed-methods explanatory design. The conceptual model positions Circular Economy as the exogenous variable, Climate Resilience as the endogenous variable, and three mediating variables: Institutional Capacity, Environmental Awareness, and Local Infrastructure. The quantitative phase surveyed households in Mashhad's eight informal settlement zones (67 neighborhoods). Using Cochran's formula (95% confidence, 5% error margin), 398 valid responses were collected via multi-stage cluster-random sampling. A researcher-developed 63-item questionnaire (five-point Likert scale) measured CE practices, mediators, and climate resilience. Data were analyzed using SPSS 26 and SmartPLS 4 for PLS-SEM. The qualitative phase included 18 semi-structured interviews with local experts (urban planners, municipal managers, informal recyclers, long-term residents) selected purposively until saturation. Thematic analysis with open, axial, and selective coding was applied. Validity was confirmed by an expert panel; reliability was established with Cronbach's Alpha >0.87 and CR >0.7. Convergent validity (AVE >0.5) and discriminant validity (Fornell-Larcker) were also confirmed.
 
Results and Discussion
Respondents were predominantly low to middle-income households. Mean CE practice score was 3.41, confirming empirical presence. Local Infrastructure scored lowest (2.94), indicating formal facility deficits. Structural equation modeling supported all hypotheses. The direct path from CE to Climate Resilience was positive and significant (β=0.31, p<0.001). CE significantly affected Institutional Capacity (β=0.47), Environmental Awareness (β=0.52), and Local Infrastructure (β=0.44). Each mediator positively affected Climate Resilience (β=0.21, 0.29, and 0.26, respectively). The total effect of CE on resilience was 0.674, with indirect effects sum (0.364) exceeding the direct effect, highlighting strong mediation. Qualitative findings explained these relationships: CE operates as a survival and adaptation strategy through reuse of bricks and steel, local material exchange networks, and self-organized waste management. Despite weak formal support, local trust networks and experiential climate knowledge foster adaptive behaviors. Triangulation shows that informal, community-driven circular practices significantly enhance climate resilience, especially with minimal institutional coordination, place-based awareness, and basic infrastructure.
 
Conclusion
CE, framed as a spatial-social framework, substantially builds climate resilience in informal settlements. CE practices—driven by local ingenuity, economic necessity, and social networks—directly and indirectly strengthen housing durability, social cohesion, and economic adaptability. The theoretical contribution lies in bridging informal settlement and CE literature in a Global South context. Resilience in informal settings arises from endogenous circular systems operating parallel to or without formal governance. Policy implications include: (1) recognizing and supporting informal recycling networks; (2) promoting awareness via trusted local channels; (3) providing minimal infrastructure (e.g., local collection points); and (4) revising building codes to incentivize CE-compliant, climate-adaptive practices. In conclusion, CE in Mashhad's informal settlements is not a deficient formal model but a context-appropriate, effective mechanism for confronting climate adversity.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.