Assessing the Resilience of the Historic Fabric of Kazeroon City and the Necessity of Its Management in Response to Natural and Human-Induced Hazards

A B S T R A C T
Historic urban fabrics are more vulnerable than other urban areas due to characteristics such as physical deterioration, high building density, limited accessibility, and inadequate infrastructure and social services. Consequently, a comprehensive and multidimensional assessment of their resilience is both necessary and unavoidable. This study adopts such an approach to comparatively evaluate the environmental, physical, and social resilience of Kazeroon’s historic fabric, while analyzing the role of targeted management in enhancing preparedness and effective response to crises. The research is applied in nature and employs a descriptive–analytical methodology. Key resilience indicators were first identified through a review of scientific literature and expert consultations, weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), processed as spatial layers in a Geographic Information System (GIS), and integrated through a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework to generate final analytical maps. The findings reveal that the core of Kazeroon’s historic fabric exhibits the lowest resilience due to physical and infrastructural deficiencies, whereas peripheral areas show relatively better conditions. Twelve sites were identified as suitable for disaster management centers, and three zones were proposed as “priority intervention belts” across the physical, environmental, and social dimensions. Beyond highlighting the fragile state of Kazeroon’s historic fabric, this study integrates the three dimensions of resilience within a spatial-analytical framework, offering a novel approach for assessing and enhancing the resilience of historic urban areas. Accordingly, the research addresses gaps in the literature on urban resilience in Iran and provides a practical basis for policymakers and urban managers in disaster management, urban regeneration, and heritage conservation.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
In recent decades, resilience has become a central concept in urban studies, particularly in historical and vulnerable contexts, attracting the attention of researchers and policymakers. In Iran, given its geographical location, widespread seismicity, and increasing unplanned human interventions, assessing and strengthening urban resilience is crucial. This is especially significant for historic urban fabrics, which often suffer from deteriorated structures, high density, limited accessibility, and weak infrastructure, making them highly vulnerable to crises. Kazeroon, one of the oldest cities in southern Iran, possesses a valuable historic fabric facing multiple natural and anthropogenic threats. This research aims to enhance urban planning capacities based on resilience while protecting and optimizing the historical heritage embedded in deteriorated urban fabrics. The study’s main objective is a comparative assessment of environmental, physical, and social resilience in Kazeroon’s historic fabric and an analysis of how its organization can support timely preparedness for natural and human-made disasters.
 
Methodology
This study is of applied and descriptive-analytical type. In the initial step, through documentary and library research, the environmental, physical (built environment), and social resilience indicators of the historic fabric of Kazeroon were identified—comprising 13 criteria and indicators, including literacy rate, gross population density, dependency ratio, household size, distance from fault lines, land slope, street network, land use, open spaces, emergency centers, vulnerable population, unemployment, and illiteracy rate. Subsequently, a pairwise comparison questionnaire based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method with a scale from 1 to 9 was designed and administered to 15 experts in the fields of urban planning, cultural heritage, and crisis management to determine the relative weight of each indicator. After extracting the weights of the criteria using Expert Choice software (version 11), the relevant spatial data layers were imported into the ArcGIS 10.8 environment. Finally, by integrating the weighted layers through the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) process, the final maps of vulnerability and resilience of the historic fabric of Kazeroon were produced.
 
Results and discussion
From the perspective of environmental indicators, Kazeroon, due to its unique geographical and climatic conditions, is exposed to hazards such as earthquakes and floods, which negatively impact its historic structures. On the other hand, physical indicators—including the condition of structures, the age of buildings, and their degree of deterioration—are also of great importance. Many of these structures require fundamental repairs and updates compatible with heritage conservation standards. From a social and demographic perspective, demographic changes and shifts in land use within these fabrics can lead to alterations in local identity and weakening of social bonds. The displacement of long-term residents and a decrease in the number of people utilizing these areas may result in diminished public interest in their preservation. Furthermore, economic developments, such as a lack of sustainable investment for restoration and maintenance, can pose a serious threat to the resilience of these historic fabrics. The results obtained from the fuzzy map of the physical (built) environment indicate that the central part of Kazeroon’s historic fabric, due to high building density, narrow street widths, and structural deterioration, is at the lowest level of physical resilience. In this area, the vulnerability of buildings to crises is very high. However, as one moves from the center toward the periphery of the fabric, resilience gradually improves.
Regarding environmental resilience, the map analysis results show that areas located at the edges of the historic fabric—characterized mainly by steep slopes, limited vegetation cover, and dispersed residential patterns—perform less effectively. Conversely, parts of the fabric with flatter terrain and proximity to urban open spaces demonstrate better performance in absorbing and controlling environmental hazards.
From the perspective of social resilience, the related maps indicate that neighborhoods located near service and emergency centers such as fire stations or police precincts exhibit higher preparedness and responsiveness to crises. Proximity to these services enhances psychological security, public trust, and the ability to recover more quickly to normal conditions during emergencies. In contrast, neighborhoods farther from these services, particularly in the southern and western parts of the historic fabric, are more vulnerable to social and psychological damages.
 
Conclusion
The research findings revealed that the historic fabric of Kazeroon is in a fragile condition in terms of various dimensions of resilience, particularly in the physical (built) and environmental domains. High construction density, narrow streets, the aged nature of buildings, insufficient open spaces, and uneven distribution of emergency infrastructure are among the key factors contributing to the vulnerability of this fabric against natural and anthropogenic hazards. In the social dimension, although some indicators such as residents’ sense of place attachment have been maintained, limited access to public services and social facilities has reduced resilience in this sector. Furthermore, the results indicated that immediate physical interventions and intelligent utilization of historical capacities are the highest priorities for enhancing the resilience of Kazeroon’s historic fabric, while other strategies can be pursued as complementary and medium-term plans.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.