تحلیلی بر ساختار فضایی جمعیت سکونتگاه‌های روستایی استان ایلام با رویکرد عدالت‎محوری

Introduction

Population and its related changes are among the significant issues in human settlements. Attention to population changes and their causes, from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives, can lead to balance in the spatial distribution of the population. Therefore, understanding the spatial distribution of population, analyzing its spatial patterns and trends in different regions, as well as the factors influencing these occurrences, is a crucial and noteworthy topic in spatial planning, playing a vital role in territorial planning. Hence, considering the importance of regional planning in balancing activity structures, infrastructure, and population, and to optimally influence the pattern of population and activity distribution at spatial scales and create an integrated spatial structure, the present study aims to investigate the spatial distribution of rural points and population across Ilam Province and to examine the role of research variables in its current state, emphasizing a justice-oriented perspective. This will help to identify and explain the current spatial distribution of the rural population and its potential influencing factors in this province.



Methodology

The research method, given its nature, is descriptive-analytical, and considering its objective, it is an applied research. Data collection was carried out through both library and field methods, relying on quantitative and qualitative data and information. Accordingly, a mixed-method approach was used for information gathering in this research. In this study, various methods were employed for data analysis in Arc GIS. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the apparent status of the distribution of rural points and population ; specifically, Mean Center was used to show the geographic center or center of gravity of a set of features, Standard Distance was used to measure the degree of concentration or dispersion of features around the Mean Center, and Standard Deviational Ellipse was used to measure the trend in a set of points or areas. Additionally, the Nearest Neighbor Unit (ANN) method and Moran's I were used to understand the spatial distribution pattern of rural points and population, local spatial autocorrelation was used to identify clustered patterns (points with similar values) and individual points (points with different values), hot spot analysis was used to show the spatial distribution of the dominant pattern in population spatial distribution, and finally, Geographically Weighted Regression was used to determine the spatial relationships between independent and dependent variables.



Results and discussion

The results of the present study showed that the spatial distribution of rural points and population in Ilam Province does not follow a homogeneous and balanced pattern, and their spatial distributions do not coincide. According to the descriptive statistics results, there was a difference between the mean center of rural points and population, indicating an imbalanced population distribution in the villages of this province. Furthermore, the standard distance of the population showed greater compactness compared to rural points. This compactness was towards the northwest of the province and Ilam city, indicating that the population is distributed according to this population pole. Also, the directional distribution of population and common points jointly has a northwest-southeast direction. The results of Nearest Neighbor and Moran's I index for examining the spatial distribution pattern of rural points and population also indicate an imbalanced and clustered distribution of rural points and population across the province. Local spatial autocorrelation results showed that points with high populations, which are also surrounded by high-population points (High-High Cluster), are generally concentrated around Ilam county and city, indicating the concentration of high-population villages in this area of the province. Moreover, the examination of hot spots through Hot Spot analysis also revealed that hot and densely populated clusters are generally located in the north and northwest of the province, centered around important and main cities of the province, including Ilam city. As a result, population hot spots have formed in these areas. Cold population spots also tend towards the south and southeast of the province, with a cold population center and cluster forming around Mehran city and the southeast of Dehloran county. Geographically Weighted Regression results, based on the R² value, indicated that the independent variables of the study have varying effects on the spatial distribution of the rural population in the province. Among these, access to services and distance from the county center had a more significant impact. Specifically, approximately 48% and 34% of the variations in the spatial distribution of the rural population in Ilam Province were influenced by the human variable of communication roads and the natural factor variable of distance from active faults, respectively. In contrast, the two factors of access to services and distance from the provincial center, with local R² values of 0.60 and 0.68 respectively, had a greater impact and were highly successful in explaining the variations in the dependent variable of spatial population distribution.



Conclusion

The results of the present study indicated that the spatial distribution pattern of the rural population in Ilam Province lacks spatial balance and equilibrium. The rural population distribution is clustered and concentrated around several specific poles, especially Ilam city in the northwest of the province. In analyzing the reasons for this situation, it should be noted that population distribution is not only a reflection of ecological and topographical attractions but also a complex outcome of the interaction of infrastructural, economic, social, and managerial factors. Thus, contrary to the common perception of the dominant role of natural and geomorphological factors in rural population distribution, the results of this research emphasize that the analysis of the spatial structure of population cannot rely solely on physical or natural variables but must consider the interaction between physical and functional factors, especially in the context of relationships with urban centers. This study also showed that human and infrastructural factors, particularly proximity to important urban centers and access to services, play a major role in the spatial distribution of the rural population in Ilam Province.