نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه مطالعات میان‌رشته‌ای، پژوهشکده دانشنامه نگاری، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی، تهران، ایران
2 گروه آموزش جغرافیا، دانشگاه فرهنگیان، تهران، ایران
3 گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی دکتر علی شریعتی، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
A B S T R A C T
Housing is one of the crucial economic sectors with extensive and close connections to other economic sectors. Therefore, planning with a foresight approach can create a positive trend in the future state of housing planning and prevent the emergence and realization of an undesirable future. The present research is applied and developmental in terms of its objective. The methods for data collection are both library and field studies. The research sample comprises 20 specialists and experts in the housing sector. The analysis follows Schwartz's model and employs the STEEP method. The tool for data analysis is the MICMAC software. The results indicate that the selected factors have significant and widespread effects on each other. In fact, the system has been in an unstable state. Out of a total of 253 evaluable matrix relationships, 111 relationships (43.57%) have high cross-impact effects, meaning they have substantial influence and are significantly influenced by other factors. Eighty-six relationships (34%) have moderate cross-impact effects, serving a reinforcing and intermediate role. Thirty-four relationships (13.4%) have weak cross-impact effects, indicating minor influence between factors. Thirty-six relationships (14.2%) have zero cross-impact effects, meaning the factors do not affect each other or are unaffected by each other. Overall, it can be concluded that most relationships between variables are ranked as 3 or very strong. Therefore, six factors (land shortage, presence of fine-grained textures, increased local government authority, land speculation, entry and exit of non-professional builders, and the use of local materials in construction) are identified as key factors having the most significant impact on the desirable scenario in the vulnerability path of housing.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Housing is one of the crucial economic sectors with extensive and close connections to other economic sectors. Therefore, planning with a foresight approach can create a positive trend in the future state of housing planning and prevent the emergence and realization of an undesirable future. In Fact, Housing is a fundamental human need essential for both quality of life and sustainable development. Infrastructure projects are pivotal to social sustainability. In fact, the sustainable future of cities and the benefits of urbanization largely depend on forward-looking housing approaches.
Methodology
The present research is applied and developmental in terms of its objective. The methods for data collection are both library and field studies. The research sample comprises 20 specialists and experts in the housing sector. The analysis follows Schwartz's model and employs the STEEP method. The tool for data analysis is the MICMAC software.
Results and discussion
The results indicate that the selected factors have significant and widespread effects on each other. In fact, the system has been in an unstable state. Out of a total of 253 evaluable matrix relationships, 111 relationships (43.57%) have high cross-impact effects, meaning they have substantial influence and are significantly influenced by other factors. Eighty-six relationships (34%) have moderate cross-impact effects, serving a reinforcing and intermediate role. Thirty-four relationships (13.4%) have weak cross-impact effects, indicating minor influence between factors. Thirty-six relationships (14.2%) have zero cross-impact effects, meaning the factors do not affect each other or are unaffected by each other.
Conclusion
Overall, it can be concluded that most relationships between variables are ranked as 3 or very strong. Therefore, six factors (land shortage, presence of fine-grained textures, increased local government authority, land speculation, entry and exit of non-professional builders, and the use of local materials in construction) are identified as key factors having the most significant impact on the desirable scenario in the vulnerability path of housing.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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