دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی جغرافیا و توسعه فضایی 3060-7523 3 1 2026 05 23 Analysis and Explanation of the Indigenous Model of Housing Affordability in Iranian Metropolises تحلیل و تبیین مدل بومی استطاعت ناپذیری مسکن در کلان‌شهرهای ایران 1 16 4591 10.22098/gsd.2026.19435.1116 FA طاها ربانی گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران حسنی سادات شمس دولت آبادی گروه معماری، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2026 01 27 A B S T R A C T Housing unaffordability in Iranian metropolises, driven by structural economic fluctuations and institutional inefficiencies, has become a multifaceted crisis. This research systematically analyzes the barriers to housing affordability and delineates a localized model for comprehending the cycle of housing poverty reproduction within Iranian metropolises. This study employed a qualitative approach using the “meta-synthesis” strategy. Fifty-one selected scientific-research articles from the last 15 years were analyzed via “thematic analysis.” Frequency analysis was used to validate dimensions and determine their weight. Relationships among themes were elucidated through “conceptual mapping” and “interpretive synthesis.” Data analysis identified 6 macro-dimensions and 29 main components. Findings reveal that "Governance" (84.3%) and "Economy" (82.3%) dominate the research literature. The derived process model indicates that the “dialectic of inflation and housing financialization,” as the primary driver, within "spatial centralization" and influenced by factors like "institutional inefficiencies and legal loopholes," leads to adverse outcomes such as “spatial exclusion, decline in living quality, and expansion of informal settlements.” The housing affordability crisis in Iran stems less from physical supply shortages and more from governance failures in land market regulation and flawed macroeconomic interventions. Overcoming this crisis requires a paradigm shift from supply-centered policies to “intelligent land governance,” tax system reform, and financing policies redesigned in alignment with Iran’s realities. Extended Abstract Introduction The escalating issue of housing unaffordability in Iranian metropolises represents a critical socio-economic challenge, exacerbated by structural economic fluctuations and persistent institutional inefficiencies. This crisis manifests as a complex web of factors impacting the accessibility and sustainability of adequate housing for a significant portion of the urban population. The pervasive nature of this problem necessitates a comprehensive understanding that moves beyond superficial analyses to address the root causes of housing poverty reproduction within these urban contexts. Therefore, this research is driven by the primary objective to systematically analyze the multifaceted barriers contributing to housing unaffordability in Iranian metropolises. Furthermore, a key goal is to delineate a localized, indigenous model that accurately reflects the unique dynamics and cyclical nature of housing poverty reproduction within these specific urban environments. To achieve these objectives, the research aims to answer the following research questions: What are the primary barriers to housing affordability in Iranian metropolises? How do economic fluctuations and institutional inefficiencies contribute to the reproduction of housing poverty? What are the key dimensions and components that constitute an indigenous model for understanding housing affordability in the context of Iranian metropolises? Methodology This study adopted a rigorous qualitative research approach, utilizing the "meta-synthesis" strategy to systematically review and integrate findings from existing literature. The research process involved the careful selection of fifty-one high-impact scientific-research articles published over the last fifteen years, focusing on housing affordability and related issues within the Iranian context. These selected articles were subjected to a thorough "thematic analysis" to identify recurring patterns, concepts, and themes. To validate the identified dimensions and ascertain their relative importance, a frequency analysis was conducted. This quantitative aspect of the analysis helped to determine the weight and prevalence of different themes within the body of research. Subsequently, the intricate relationships among the identified themes were meticulously elucidated through the application of "conceptual mapping" and "interpretive synthesis" techniques. This integrated approach allowed for the development of a nuanced and comprehensive understanding of the complex phenomenon of housing unaffordability in Iranian metropolises. Results and Discussion The comprehensive analysis of the selected literature yielded significant insights, identifying six macro-dimensions and twenty-nine main components that characterize the housing affordability crisis in Iranian metropolises. The findings emphatically reveal that research on this topic is overwhelmingly dominated by two key areas: "Governance" and "Economy," accounting for 84.3% and 82.3% of the literature, respectively. This dominance underscores the critical role of both policy frameworks and economic conditions in shaping housing affordability. The derived process model illustrates a complex interplay of factors. It indicates that the "dialectic of inflation and housing financialization" acts as the primary driver of unaffordability. This core dynamic operates within a context of "spatial centralization" and is further influenced by persistent "institutional inefficiencies and legal loopholes." The cumulative effect of these factors results in a cascade of adverse outcomes, including "spatial exclusion," a demonstrable "decline in living quality" for a significant segment of the population, and the concerning "expansion of informal settlements" as a coping mechanism for those priced out of formal housing markets. The prevalence of governance and economic factors in the literature highlights that the crisis is not merely a function of physical housing shortages but is deeply embedded in policy, regulation, and macroeconomic management. The identified components, such as institutional inefficiencies and legal loopholes, suggest systemic issues within the current urban management framework that hinder effective policy implementation and market regulation. The dialectic between inflation and financialization points to the complex financial mechanisms that can inflate housing prices beyond the reach of average citizens, often driven by speculative behavior rather than fundamental housing needs. Conclusion In conclusion, the persistent housing affordability crisis plaguing Iran's metropolises appears to stem less from fundamental shortages in physical housing supply and more significantly from critical governance failures in effectively regulating the land market and from flawed macroeconomic interventions. The current policy landscape, characterized by reactive measures rather than proactive strategies, has perpetuated a cycle of unaffordability. To effectively overcome this entrenched crisis, a fundamental paradigm shift is imperative. This shift must move away from a sole focus on increasing physical supply, towards a more holistic approach centered on "intelligent land governance." This involves implementing sophisticated strategies for land use planning, value capture, and speculation deterrence. Furthermore, a comprehensive reform of the existing tax system is crucial, particularly concerning property and land taxes, to discourage hoarding and speculative investment. Equally important is the redesign of financing policies, ensuring they are genuinely aligned with the economic realities and income levels prevalent in Iran, thereby promoting accessibility rather than exacerbating exclusion. Such integrated and context-specific policy reforms are essential for fostering a more equitable and sustainable housing market in Iranian metropolises. Funding This research was funded by the Tehran Urban Studies and Planning Center. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. استطاعت‌ناپذیری مسکن در کلان‌شهرهای ایران تحت تأثیر نوسانات ساختاری اقتصاد و ناکارآمدی‌های نهادی، به بحرانی چندبعدی مبدل شده است. هدف اصلی این پژوهش، تحلیل نظام‌مند موانع استطاعت‌پذیری و تبیین یک مدل بومی برای درک چرخه بازتولید فقر مسکن در بستر کلان‌شهری ایران است. این تحقیق با اتکا به رویکرد کیفی و راهبرد "فراترکیب" انجام‌شده است. در این راستا، ۵۱ مقاله علمی-پژوهشی منتخب در بازه زمانی 15 سال اخیر، با استفاده از روش «تحلیل مضمون» واکاوی شدند. جهت اعتبارسنجی و تعیین وزن ابعاد شناسایی‌شده، از تحلیل فراوانی سنجی استفاده گردید و در نهایت، روابط میان مضامین از طریق «نقشه‌نگاری مفهومی» و «سنتز تفسیری» تبیین شد. تحلیل داده‌ها منجر به شناسایی ۶ بعد کلان و ۲۹ مؤلفه اصلی گردید. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که ابعاد «حکمرانی» (۸۴.۳٪) و «اقتصاد» (۸۲.۳٪) بیشترین سهم را در ادبیات پژوهشی به خود اختصاص داده‌اند. مدل فرآیندی مستخرج از پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که «دیالکتیک تورم و مالی شدن مسکن» به‌عنوان محرک اصلی، در بسترِ «تمرکزگرایی فضایی» و تحت تأثیر عوامل میانجی نظیر «ناکارآمدی نهادی و خلأهای قانونی»، به پیامدهای ناگواری همچون «طرد فضایی، افت کیفیت زیست و گسترش سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی» منجر شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که بحران استطاعت‌پذیری در ایران بیش از آنکه ناشی از کمبود عرضه کالبدی باشد، محصول شکست حکمرانی در تنظیم‌گری بازار زمین و مداخلات نامناسب اقتصاد کلان است. لذا برون‌رفت از این وضعیت مستلزم چرخش پارادایمی از سیاست‌های عرضه‌محور به سمت «حکمرانی هوشمند زمین»، اصلاح نظام مالیاتی و بازطراحی سیاست‌های تأمین مالی در انطباق با واقعیت‌های بومی ایران است.

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