دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی جغرافیا و توسعه فضایی 3060-7523 2 1 2025 05 10 Key Drivers for Achieving Healthy Housing Pattern in Response to Future Pandemics: A case study of District 3 of Sanandaj شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران‌های کلیدی برای تحقق الگوی مسکن سالم در مواجهه با بحران‌های بهداشتی آینده، مطالعه موردی: منطقه سه شهر سنندج 1 16 3676 10.22098/gsd.2025.16744.1080 FA پارسا احمدی دهرشید گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران احمد پوراحمد گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران حسین منصوریان گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران امیررضا خاوریان گرمسیر گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان، ایران Journal Article 2024 11 26 A B S T R A C T The outbreak of coronavirus and other recent global pandemics has clearly highlighted the critical importance of housing quality in maintaining community health and well-being. This paper aims to identify and analyze the key drivers affecting the realization of a healthy housing Pattern in response to future health crises in District 3 of Sanandaj. The study employed both documentary and survey methods for data collection. The statistical population consisted of 13 local experts in land and housing, selected using snowball sampling. Data were collected and analyzed through four rounds of the Delphi process. The preliminary analysis revealed that out of 222 evaluated relationships, 34 had no impact, 53 had a low impact, 109 had a relatively strong impact, 58 had a very strong impact, and 2 had a potential impact. The matrix fill percentage was 98.67%, indicating significant interdependence and notable effects among the variables. The findings of this study identify "Construction Control and Supervision" as the most influential direct driver, and "Energy Production Capability" as having the highest direct sensitivity. Additionally, "Review of Housing Construction Requirements and Regulations" demonstrated the greatest indirect influence. These results emphasize the importance of these drivers in achieving a healthy housing Pattern amidst health crises. The study recommends that policymakers focus on strengthening managerial and supervisory actions in housing policy design and implementation. Specifically, it suggests the establishment of specialized task forces to oversee construction quality and that residents' specific needs be seriously considered in space design. Attention to these aspects can significantly improve housing quality and increase preparedness for health crises. Future research should explore the application of effective factors for achieving a healthy housing Pattern in the context of local conditions Extended Abstract Introduction The outbreak of coronavirus and other recent global pandemics has underscored the critical role of housing and its quality in maintaining the health and well-being of communities. During extended periods of residence at home, housing features can have a direct and significant impact on the physical and mental health of occupants. Consequently, designing and developing healthy housing Patterns that can withstand future pandemic threats has become a primary focus in urban planning and public policy. A review of the literature reveals that while extensive research has been conducted on housing and health, there are significant gaps in identifying the key factors necessary for achieving a healthy housing Pattern during health crises. Most studies have concentrated on the physical and structural aspects of housing, with less comprehensive analysis of the drivers affecting this area. This research aims to identify and analyze the most crucial drivers influencing the realization of a healthy housing Pattern in District 3 of Sanandaj and, through a cohesive conceptual Pattern, offers actionable strategies to enhance community preparedness for health crises. This study can assist policymakers and urban planners in developing more resilient housing Patterns, improving residents' quality of life and health, and providing innovative solutions for future challenges Methodology This study employs an applied and descriptive-analytical research methodology to identify the drivers impacting the realization of a healthy housing Pattern in the face of future pandemics. It focuses on evaluating and optimizing housing Patterns to enhance the well-being and comfort of residents in District 3 of Sanandaj, utilizing a snowball sampling method for data collection. This method is deemed suitable due to its networking and referral capabilities, enabling the identification of local experts familiar with the housing and land conditions in the study area. Data were collected through four rounds of the Delphi process. In the first round, identified drivers were presented to experts in a questionnaire and scored based on a Likert scale. Subsequent rounds involved the elimination of drivers with scores below the average, and after collecting and analyzing the final data, a cross-impact matrix was prepared to evaluate the interrelationships between drivers. Finally, the data were transferred to Excel and MicMac software for the final analysis Results and discussion In the preliminary analysis of the cross-impact matrix data, out of 222 evaluated relationships, 34 were found to have no impact, 53 had low impact, 109 had a relatively strong impact, 58 had a very strong impact, and 2 had potential impact. The matrix fill percentage was 98.67%, indicating significant interdependence among variables. This analysis helped in identifying and evaluating the key drivers for achieving a healthy housing Pattern in the context of future pandemics. In assessing direct and indirect impacts, “Construction Control and Supervision” (COSU) emerged as the most influential direct driver, while “Energy Production Capability” (ENPR) was identified as having the highest direct sensitivity. Additionally, “Review of Housing Construction Requirements and Regulations” (HCRR) demonstrated the greatest indirect influence, and “Energy Production Capability” (ENPR) also showed the highest indirect sensitivity. These results highlight the importance of drivers in achieving a healthy housing Pattern amidst health crises.. Drivers were categorized into various groups in the impact and sensitivity matrix. Influential drivers such as “Construction Control and Supervision”, “Establishment of a Healthy Housing Task Force”, and “Review of Housing Construction Requirements and Regulations” primarily point to the need for managerial collaboration. Bidirectional drivers, like “Flexibility”, exhibit high levels of both influence and sensitivity. Sensitive drivers, including “Interior Design Based on Resident Needs”, particularly in physical and social contexts, aim to enhance quality of life and resilience against diseases. Regulatory drivers, such as “Number of Rooms” and “Space Layout”, are considered effective tools in achieving a healthy housing Pattern. Conclusion This study has analyzed the drivers affecting the realization of a healthy housing Pattern in the face of future pandemics. The findings indicate that “Construction Control and Supervision” and “Establishment of a Healthy Housing Task Force” are key drivers in this domain. These drivers, through precise supervision and management, can significantly improve housing quality and standards. Moreover, “Open and Semi-Open Space Planning” and “Interior Design Based on Resident Needs”, with high sensitivity, play a crucial role in enhancing housing quality and preparedness for health crises. The research recommends that policymakers place greater emphasis on managerial drivers in housing policy design and implementation and strengthen supervisory and managerial actions. It is particularly suggested that specialized task forces be established to oversee construction quality and that attention be given to residents' needs and the design of versatile spaces for various uses. These measures can significantly improve living conditions and increase housing resilience against pandemics. Future research should explore independent drivers and the effects of different policies to achieve a more detailed analysis of this issue. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. شیوع ویروس‌های کرونا و دیگر همه‌گیری‌های جهانی اخیر، اهمیت حیاتی کیفیت مسکن در حفظ سلامت و رفاه جامعه را به‌وضوح نمایان کرده است. هدف این مقاله شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران‌های مؤثر بر تحقق الگوی مسکن سالم در مواجهه با بحران‌های بهداشتی آینده در منطقه سه شهر سنندج است. در این تحقیق از روش‌های اسنادی و پیمایشی برای جمع‌آوری داده‌ها استفاده شد. جامعه آماری شامل ۱۳ نفر از کارشناسان محلی حوزه زمین و مسکن بود که با روش نمونه‌گیری گلوله برفی انتخاب شدند. داده‌ها از طریق چهار دور فرآیند دلفی جمع‌آوری و تحلیل شدند. در تحلیل اولیه، از مجموع ۲۲۲ رابطه ارزیابی‌شده، ۳۴ رابطه تأثیر نداشت، ۵۳ رابطه تأثیر کم، ۱۰۹ رابطه تأثیر نسبتاً قوی، ۵۸ رابطه تأثیر بسیار قوی و ۲ رابطه تأثیر بالقوه شناسایی شد. درصد پرشدگی ماتریس 67/%98 بود که نشان‌دهنده وابستگی متقابل و تأثیر قابل‌توجه متغیرها بر یکدیگر است. یافته‌های این مطالعه نشان می‌دهند که «کنترل و نظارت بر ساخت‌وساز» به‌عنوان پیشران اصلی با بیشترین تأثیر مستقیم و «قابلیت تولید انرژی» با بیشترین تأثیرگذاری مستقیم شناسایی‌شده‌اند. علاوه بر این، «بازنگری در الزامات و قوانین ساخت مسکن» بیشترین تأثیر غیرمستقیم را دارد. این نتایج تأکید بر اهمیت پیشران‌ها در تحقق الگوی مسکن سالم در مواجهه با بحران‌های بهداشتی دارد. در پایان، این تحقیق به سیاست‌گذاران توصیه می‌کند که بر تقویت اقدامات مدیریتی و نظارتی در طراحی و اجرای سیاست‌های مسکن تمرکز کنند. به‌ویژه، پیشنهاد می‌شود که کارگروه‌های تخصصی برای نظارت بر کیفیت ساخت‌وساز ایجاد شود و نیازهای خاص ساکنین در طراحی فضاها به‌طورجدی موردتوجه قرار گیرد. توجه به این نکات می‌تواند به بهبود کیفیت مسکن و افزایش آمادگی در برابر بحران‌های بهداشتی کمک کند. پیشنهاد می‌شود که در تحقیقات آتی به بررسی نحوه به‌کارگیری عوامل مؤثر بر تحقق الگوی مسکن سالم با توجه به شرایط بومی پرداخته شود.

https://gsd.uma.ac.ir/article_3676_618a9fa66892c162accf7d8bc74bdaa4.pdf

دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی جغرافیا و توسعه فضایی 3060-7523 2 1 2025 05 12 Road Safety Assessment with Emphasis on Environmental Parameters: Dehgolan to Sanandaj Route ارزیابی ایمنی جاده‌ای با تأکید بر پارامترهای محیطی: مسیر دهگلان به سنندج 17 37 3742 10.22098/gsd.2025.17065.1082 FA پویا زارعی گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران معصومه مقبل گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0000-0001-9393-9954 Journal Article 2024 11 26 A B S T R A C T The Dehgolan–Sanandaj corridor is one of the key transportation routes connecting Dehgolan County to Sanandaj and serves as a primary access road from Sanandaj to Tehran. Various natural factors influence road-related hazards, including precipitation, slope, elevation, mass movements, freezing, and others. Due to its passage through mountainous areas with steep gradients and diverse environmental and climatic conditions, this route is prone to hazards such as flooding, landslides, and avalanches. This study aims to identify and map the hazard-prone zones along this corridor by considering regional characteristics. To this end, key environmental criteria affecting road safety—including elevation, slope, slope aspect, land use, precipitation, and freezing—were first prepared and standardized. In the next step, the relative importance (weight) of each criterion was determined through expert opinion using pairwise comparisons within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), analyzed with the Expert Choice software. Finally, a road safety risk assessment map was developed. The zoning results revealed that the vulnerability levels along the studied route are distributed as follows: 56.43% in the very low-risk class, 2.17% in low-risk, 5.41% in moderate-risk, 10.74% in high-risk, and 25.23% in the very high-risk class. Moreover, results indicate that the low-risk zones predominantly occur in areas with 0–10% slope, covering approximately 76% of the route. In contrast, zones with very high risk are mainly located at elevations above 2000 meters, featuring mountain passes and steep slopes, with 21.3% and 3% falling into high and very high elevation classes respectively—collectively accounting for about 1% of the total route area Extensive Abstract Introduction Currently, the functioning and progress of modern society heavily relies on road networks. Road networks are one of the vital networks whose damage can cause excess pressure on other networks, especially in emergency situations. Also, road transport networks, as the most widespread and accessible form of freight and passenger movement, are exposed to a wide range of natural and man-made hazards. Extreme weather conditions or natural disasters can significantly disrupt the transport network. Natural hazards such as floods, landslides, earthquakes and tsunamis have significant impacts on the ability of transport systems to provide safe, efficient and accessible transport. Many road hazards are associated with various climatic, hydrological, geomorphological, etc. factors. In this regard, the geographic information system, with its capabilities of linking spatial and descriptive environmental characteristics, is a suitable tool for assessing road hazards with an environmental approach. any road hazards are associated with various factors, including climatic, hydrological, geomorphological, and other environmental elements. In this context, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), with their capability to integrate spatial and descriptive environmental characteristics, serve as an effective tool for assessing road hazards through an environmentally oriented approach. Accordingly, this study aims to utilize Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to identify and evaluate the contributing factors to road hazards along the Dehgolan to Sanandaj route. Methodology In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method based on climatic variables was used to assess road safety on the Dehgolan-Sanandaj axis. In this regard, influential criteria including climatic data, land use, and physiographic characteristics were used to investigate the safety of the Dehgolan-Sanandaj axis. In this regard, six influential factors including slope, slope direction, digital elevation model, land cover, precipitation, and frost were selected. Each of the above criteria was extracted in the ArcGIS 10.8.2 software environment and standardized according to their nature. In the following, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used to obtain the importance of each of these factors (criteria) in relation to road hazard risk. Results and discussion The study of the importance of the criteria shows that the slope factor has the greatest effect on the occurrence of road environmental hazards compared to other factors. Also, the land use criterion has the least effect on the occurrence of road hazards. The results show that most of the studied axis is in the low slope and very low risk class, which generally includes agricultural vegetation lands. According to Table (5), about 57 percent of the axis surface has very low risk, about 2 percent of the axis surface has low risk, and about 5 percent of the axis surface has medium risk. Along the Dehgolan to Sanandaj axis, the presence of a high-slope pass in the study area has caused about 10 percent of the axis surface to be in the high risk class and 25 percent of the axis surface to be in the very high risk class. Conclusion The occurrence of various environmental hazards, including floods, landslides, avalanches, etc., in interprovincial and urban road communications leaves significant human and financial losses. In order to reduce losses and increase the safety factor, it is necessary to predict, examine and analyze hazardous areas using various parameters. In this regard, using climatic, topographic and land cover criteria, environmental hazard zoning was carried out to assess the safety of the Dehgolan-Sanandaj axis. Based on the results obtained from zoning in the studied axis, the risk level of this axis was extracted and identified as 56.43% in the very low risk class, 17.2% in the low risk class, 41.5% in the medium risk class, 74.10% in the high risk class and 23.25% in the very high risk class. The results also show that the low risk class is mostly in the 0 to 10% slope class, which covers 76% of the axis. But the very high risk areas at an altitude above 2000 meters, which have passes and steep slopes, are 21 and 3 percent in the high and very high altitude classes, which cover about 1 percent of the axis area. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. محور دهگلان به سنندج یکی از مواصلات مهم ارتباطی بین شهرستان دهگلان و سنندج و یکی از جاده‌های اصلی ارتباطی سنندج به تهران می‌باشد. عوامل طبیعی مختلفی در رخداد مخاطرات جاده‌ای تأثیر دارند که می‌توان به بارش، شیب، ارتفاع، حرکات دامنه‌ای، یخبندان و ... اشاره کرد. محور دهگلان به سنندج به دلیل عبور از مناطق کوهستانی، پرشیب، دامنه‌های با شرایط طبیعی و اقلیمی متفاوت، پتانسیل وقوع مخاطراتی همچون سیل، زمین‌لغزش، بهمن را دارد. پژوهش حاضر با در نظر گرفتن خصوصیات منطقه در صدد شناسایی و پهنه‌بندی مناطق حساس این محور می‌باشد. در این راستا ابتدا معیارهای محیطی مؤثر بر ایمنی جاده اعم از ارتفاع، شیب، جهت شیب، کاربری اراضی، بارش و یخبندان آماده و استانداردسازی شدند. در مرحله بعد وزن هر یک از معیارها با نظر کارشناسان خبره و با به‌کارگیری روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی به‌صورت زوجی مقایسه و در نرم‌افزار Expert Choice موردبررسی قرار گرفت. در نهایت اقدام به تهیه نقشه ارزیابی ایمنی جاده‌ای گردید. بر اساس نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از پهنه‌بندی در محور موردمطالعه، میزان خطرپذیری این محور به ترتیب 43/56 درصد در کلاس خطر بسیار کم، 17/2 درصد در خطر کم، 41/5 درصد در خطر متوسط، 74/10 درصد در کلاس خطر زیاد و 23/25 درصد در کلاس خطر بسیار زیاد استخراج و شناسایی شدند. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد که کلاس خطر کم بیشتر در کلاس شیب 0 تا 10 درصد قرار دارد که 76 درصد از محور را در برگرفته است. اما پهنه‌های با خطر خیلی زیاد در ارتفاع بالای 2000 متر که دارای گردنه‌ها و شیب تند می‌باشد 21 و 3 درصد در کلاس ارتفاعی زیاد و خیلی زیاد قرارگرفته‌اند که حدود 1 درصد سطح محور را در برمی‌گیرد.

https://gsd.uma.ac.ir/article_3742_fc0dc12c01378eb85c98b72ae549d511.pdf

دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی جغرافیا و توسعه فضایی 3060-7523 2 1 2025 05 13 Assessing Housing Desirability in Small Cities through the Sustainable Housing Framework: A case study of Dehgolan city ارزیابی میزان مطلوبیت مسکن در شهرهای کوچک با چارچوب مسکن پایدار مطالعه موردی: شهر دهگلان 39 58 3960 10.22098/gsd.2025.3960 FA آرمان امیری گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران حسین حاتمی نژاد گروه جغرافیای انسانی وبرنامه ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران سعید زنگنه شهرکی گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2024 11 26 A B S T R A C T From a scientific standpoint, sustainable housing planning cannot be approached effectively without accounting for the ecological characteristics of small cities, regional spatial limits, and the functional and identity-related dimensions of residential land use. This research is applied in nature and conducted using a case-analytical method with a mixed-methods approach. Given the nature of the data and the inability to control the behavior of influencing variables, it is classified as non-experimental. Data collection was carried out using both documentary (library) and field methods, including researcher-designed questionnaires and direct observation. To analyze the data, various statistical tools were employed: one-sample t-tests, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), Pearson correlation, Scheffé’s post hoc test, and structural equation modeling (SEM). The Pearson correlation results indicate no significant relationship between housing desirability and the status of formal and informal urban fabrics; however, in deteriorated areas, a significant negative correlation of -0.215 was observed. One-sample t-test results showed that the level of housing sustainability in all three fabrics—formal, informal, and deteriorated—was above the benchmark of 70, indicating high levels of sustainability. Based on the ANOVA test and the significance levels of deterioration variables and their three components (p < 0.05), meaningful differences were found in housing desirability and its dimensions across different urban contexts. The Scheffé test results indicated that formal urban fabric had better housing quality than both deteriorated and informal fabrics, while the deteriorated fabric showed a higher level of sustainability than the informal one. In terms of housing, deterioration, and desirability components, residents in formal areas reported better conditions than those in deteriorated and informal areas; likewise, residents in deteriorated areas had more favorable conditions than those in informal areas Extensive Abstract Introduction Small cities differ significantly from larger ones in terms of physical structure and population characteristics. They are scaled-down versions of major urban centers, with distinct attributes in terms of income levels, unemployment rates, poverty, access to services, educational development, housing value, and urban ecological structure. In recent years, Dehgolan’s physical expansion has been reflected in indicators such as increasing unemployment, horizontal (sprawl) development, failure to meet per capita service provisions (as outlined in the city’s master plan), and an unequal distribution of amenities across neighborhoods. One of the most pressing challenges in Dehgolan is the housing sector and its sustainability indicators. Sustainable housing is identified by features such as accessibility, quality, affordability, and comfort. However, issues such as land subdivision into small plots, low per capita residential area, expansion of midtown areas, inadequate construction supervision, the inability to renovate deteriorated fabrics, non-compliance with building regulations, and poor construction materials have all contributed to unsustainable housing conditions. Given that residential land use accounts for more than 50% of the total urban land and plays a critical role in sustainable urban development, land use changes, and consequently, the quality of residential life and associated socio-economic, cultural, and environmental dimensions, the aim of this study is to evaluate housing desirability in Dehgolan to determine the potential for achieving sustainable housing goals. The key research questions are: To what extent does the housing situation in Dehgolan align with principles of sustainability? What differences exist among the city’s various urban fabrics in terms of housing? Methodology This applied research employs a case-analytical approach with a mixed-methods design. The statistical population includes three types of residential urban fabric in Dehgolan. According to the 2016 National Population and Housing Census, the city has a population of 33,456 people. Fieldwork was based on a researcher-designed questionnaire with six structural dimensions, comprising 20 items covering five subscales: social, institutional, environmental, spatial-physical, and economic. The questionnaire’s content validity was previously confirmed using exploratory factor analysis, and its reliability was calculated at 0.804 (Cronbach’s alpha). To assess housing desirability within the framework of sustainable housing, a second instrument was developed and validated by 13 urban planning experts. Its reliability was also confirmed with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.838, and it contained 52 items. For data analysis, both descriptive and inferential statistics were used, including Pearson correlation, one-sample t-tests, one-way ANOVA, and Scheffé’s post hoc test. Structural equation modeling was also applied. The sample size was calculated using Cochran’s formula with a 5% margin of error and 95% confidence level, resulting in an estimated sample of 384 participants. To enhance reliability, 400 completed questionnaires were collected and analyzed. Results and discussion Pearson correlation results showed a significant relationship between the degree of deterioration and the type of urban fabric. In formal areas, the correlation was positive and significant (r = 0.592); in informal areas, the correlation was even stronger (r = 0.852); and in deteriorated areas, the correlation was also positive and significant (r = 0.411). To examine the role of sustainable housing on the variability of urban fabric conditions, a one-sample t-test was applied. Results indicated that the sustainability level in all three types of urban fabric exceeded the benchmark score of 70, confirming a relatively high degree of sustainability across the board. The Scheffé post hoc test was used to compare differences between the fabrics. The test revealed that in terms of housing quality, formal areas were significantly better off than deteriorated and informal areas. Moreover, deteriorated areas exhibited higher sustainability than informal ones. Regarding housing, deterioration, and desirability components, residents of formal fabrics experienced more favorable conditions than those in deteriorated and informal areas. Furthermore, residents in deteriorated areas reported better outcomes than those living in informal neighborhoods. Conclusion The findings of this study highlight the increasing responsibilities of urban managers in light of continued urban population growth and the emergence of diverse citizen needs. Urban management can no longer be seen solely through the lens of service delivery. One of the most critical factors contributing to successful urban governance is the enhancement of housing desirability and the quality of residential environments, which play a more significant role than even physical or human capital in organizations and societies. Housing not only shapes the physical living conditions of individuals but also forms the basis of collective social interaction, cohesion, and institutional connectivity. Without adequate housing, cultural and economic development becomes uneven and difficult to sustain. Based on the findings of this study, it can be concluded that among the studied components, housing desirability, quality, and physical deterioration significantly affect the urban fabric. Moreover, there is a meaningful relationship between housing desirability and sustainability across the three urban fabrics in Dehgolan. The results suggest that sustainability indicators are directly correlated with the quality of housing in Dehgolan’s urban context. In other words, as housing desirability increases within residential land use, the likelihood of achieving broader urban sustainability goals also increases. The present research was motivated by the specific functional issues of the housing sector in Dehgolan, which differentiate it from conventional approaches and highlight the need for tailored, localized housing policies. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. برنامه‌ریزی مسکن پایدار از دید مطالعات علمی، بدون منظور داشتن ویژگی‌های بوم‌شناختی شهرهای کوچک، محدوده‌های منطقه‌ای و هویت و شعاع عملکردی این کاربری از ابعاد و مفاهیم منطقی و اصولی برخوردار نمی‌شود. پژوهش حاضر در زمرة تحقیقات کاربردی است که با روش تحلیلی ـ موردی و رویکرد آمیخته انجام‌گرفته است. با توجه به ماهیت داده‌ها و عدم امکان کنترل رفتار متغیرهای مؤثر در مسئله نیز از نوع غیرتجربی است. پژوهش حاضر متکی به روش کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی و ابزار پرسشنامه و مشاهده است. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از آزمون‌های تی تک نمونه‌ای، تحلیل واریانس یک‌طرفه (ANOVA)، همبستگی و آزمون تعقیبی شفه در و مدل‌یابی معادلات ساختاری استفاده‌شده است. با توجه به نتایج ضریب همبستگی پیرسون می‌توان گفت بین میزان مطلوبیت با وضعیت بافت رسمی و غیررسمی ارتباط معناداری وجود ندارد اما در بافت فرسوده با ضریب همبستگی 215/0- ارتباط منفی و معناداری وجود دارد. با توجه به نتایج آزمون t تک نمونه‌ای میزان سطح پایداری مسکن در هر سه بافت رسمی، غیررسمی و فرسوده از ملاک (70) بالاتر است لذا می‌توان گفت مسکن پایدار در هر سه بافت در سطح بالایی می‌باشد. با توجه به نتایج آزمون آنوا، سطح معنی‌داری در متغیر فرسودگی و سه مؤلفه آن (sig<0/05) می‌توان گفت که اختلاف معناداری بین مطلوبیت مسکن و مؤلفه‌های آن در بافت‌های مختلف شهری وجود دارد. نتایج آزمون تعقیبی نشان می‌دهد که در متغیر کیفیت مسکن بافت رسمی نسبت به بافت فرسوده و غیررسمی وضعیت بهتری دارد و بافت فرسوده از بافت غیررسمی دارای سطح پایداری بالاتری می‌باشند. در مؤلفه‌های مسکن، فرسودگی و مطلوبیت نیز وضعیت بافت افراد ساکن در بافت رسمی مطلوب‌تر از افراد ساکن در بافت‌های فرسوده و غیررسمی بوده و افراد ساکن در بافت فرسوده مسکن، فرسودگی و مطلوبیت بالاتری نسبت به افراد ساکن در بافت غیررسمی دارند.

https://gsd.uma.ac.ir/article_3960_f068c85b80212cffbad265469a4268fc.pdf

دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی جغرافیا و توسعه فضایی 3060-7523 2 1 2025 05 13 Assessing the Resilience of the Historic Fabric of Kazeroon City and the Necessity of Its Management in Response to Natural and Human-Induced Hazards ارزیابی تاب‌آوری بافت تاریخی شهر کازرون و ضرورت ساماندهی آن در مواجهه با بحران‌های طبیعی و انسان‌ساخت 59 77 4186 10.22098/gsd.2025.17991.1093 FA مصطفی آریان کیا گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-1710-3319 افشین ابراهیمی گروه پژوهشکده مرمت و آثار تاریخی، پژوهشگاه میراث فرهنگی و گردشگری، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2024 11 26 A B S T R A C T Historic urban fabrics are more vulnerable than other urban areas due to characteristics such as physical deterioration, high building density, limited accessibility, and inadequate infrastructure and social services. Consequently, a comprehensive and multidimensional assessment of their resilience is both necessary and unavoidable. This study adopts such an approach to comparatively evaluate the environmental, physical, and social resilience of Kazeroon’s historic fabric, while analyzing the role of targeted management in enhancing preparedness and effective response to crises. The research is applied in nature and employs a descriptive–analytical methodology. Key resilience indicators were first identified through a review of scientific literature and expert consultations, weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), processed as spatial layers in a Geographic Information System (GIS), and integrated through a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework to generate final analytical maps. The findings reveal that the core of Kazeroon’s historic fabric exhibits the lowest resilience due to physical and infrastructural deficiencies, whereas peripheral areas show relatively better conditions. Twelve sites were identified as suitable for disaster management centers, and three zones were proposed as “priority intervention belts” across the physical, environmental, and social dimensions. Beyond highlighting the fragile state of Kazeroon’s historic fabric, this study integrates the three dimensions of resilience within a spatial-analytical framework, offering a novel approach for assessing and enhancing the resilience of historic urban areas. Accordingly, the research addresses gaps in the literature on urban resilience in Iran and provides a practical basis for policymakers and urban managers in disaster management, urban regeneration, and heritage conservation. Extended Abstract Introduction In recent decades, resilience has become a central concept in urban studies, particularly in historical and vulnerable contexts, attracting the attention of researchers and policymakers. In Iran, given its geographical location, widespread seismicity, and increasing unplanned human interventions, assessing and strengthening urban resilience is crucial. This is especially significant for historic urban fabrics, which often suffer from deteriorated structures, high density, limited accessibility, and weak infrastructure, making them highly vulnerable to crises. Kazeroon, one of the oldest cities in southern Iran, possesses a valuable historic fabric facing multiple natural and anthropogenic threats. This research aims to enhance urban planning capacities based on resilience while protecting and optimizing the historical heritage embedded in deteriorated urban fabrics. The study’s main objective is a comparative assessment of environmental, physical, and social resilience in Kazeroon’s historic fabric and an analysis of how its organization can support timely preparedness for natural and human-made disasters. Methodology This study is of applied and descriptive-analytical type. In the initial step, through documentary and library research, the environmental, physical (built environment), and social resilience indicators of the historic fabric of Kazeroon were identified—comprising 13 criteria and indicators, including literacy rate, gross population density, dependency ratio, household size, distance from fault lines, land slope, street network, land use, open spaces, emergency centers, vulnerable population, unemployment, and illiteracy rate. Subsequently, a pairwise comparison questionnaire based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method with a scale from 1 to 9 was designed and administered to 15 experts in the fields of urban planning, cultural heritage, and crisis management to determine the relative weight of each indicator. After extracting the weights of the criteria using Expert Choice software (version 11), the relevant spatial data layers were imported into the ArcGIS 10.8 environment. Finally, by integrating the weighted layers through the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) process, the final maps of vulnerability and resilience of the historic fabric of Kazeroon were produced. Results and discussion From the perspective of environmental indicators, Kazeroon, due to its unique geographical and climatic conditions, is exposed to hazards such as earthquakes and floods, which negatively impact its historic structures. On the other hand, physical indicators—including the condition of structures, the age of buildings, and their degree of deterioration—are also of great importance. Many of these structures require fundamental repairs and updates compatible with heritage conservation standards. From a social and demographic perspective, demographic changes and shifts in land use within these fabrics can lead to alterations in local identity and weakening of social bonds. The displacement of long-term residents and a decrease in the number of people utilizing these areas may result in diminished public interest in their preservation. Furthermore, economic developments, such as a lack of sustainable investment for restoration and maintenance, can pose a serious threat to the resilience of these historic fabrics. The results obtained from the fuzzy map of the physical (built) environment indicate that the central part of Kazeroon’s historic fabric, due to high building density, narrow street widths, and structural deterioration, is at the lowest level of physical resilience. In this area, the vulnerability of buildings to crises is very high. However, as one moves from the center toward the periphery of the fabric, resilience gradually improves. Regarding environmental resilience, the map analysis results show that areas located at the edges of the historic fabric—characterized mainly by steep slopes, limited vegetation cover, and dispersed residential patterns—perform less effectively. Conversely, parts of the fabric with flatter terrain and proximity to urban open spaces demonstrate better performance in absorbing and controlling environmental hazards. From the perspective of social resilience, the related maps indicate that neighborhoods located near service and emergency centers such as fire stations or police precincts exhibit higher preparedness and responsiveness to crises. Proximity to these services enhances psychological security, public trust, and the ability to recover more quickly to normal conditions during emergencies. In contrast, neighborhoods farther from these services, particularly in the southern and western parts of the historic fabric, are more vulnerable to social and psychological damages. Conclusion The research findings revealed that the historic fabric of Kazeroon is in a fragile condition in terms of various dimensions of resilience, particularly in the physical (built) and environmental domains. High construction density, narrow streets, the aged nature of buildings, insufficient open spaces, and uneven distribution of emergency infrastructure are among the key factors contributing to the vulnerability of this fabric against natural and anthropogenic hazards. In the social dimension, although some indicators such as residents’ sense of place attachment have been maintained, limited access to public services and social facilities has reduced resilience in this sector. Furthermore, the results indicated that immediate physical interventions and intelligent utilization of historical capacities are the highest priorities for enhancing the resilience of Kazeroon’s historic fabric, while other strategies can be pursued as complementary and medium-term plans. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. بافت‌های تاریخی به دلیل ویژگی‌هایی مانند فرسودگی کالبدی، تراکم بالای ساخت‌وساز، محدودیت‌های دسترسی و ضعف خدمات زیربنایی و اجتماعی، آسیب‌پذیرتر از سایر مناطق شهری‌اند. ازاین‌رو، بررسی جامع و چندبُعدی تاب‌آوری این فضاها نه‌تنها ضروری بلکه اجتناب‌ناپذیر است. پژوهش حاضر با همین رویکرد، به ارزیابی تطبیقی تاب‌آوری محیطی، کالبدی و اجتماعی در بافت تاریخی شهر کازرون پرداخته و نقش ساماندهی هدفمند این بافت را در آمادگی و واکنش مؤثر در برابر بحران‌ها مورد تحلیل قرار داده است. ماهیت پژوهش کاربردی و با روش توصیفی–تحلیلی انجام‌شده است. در مرحله نخست، شاخص‌های اصلی تاب‌آوری با بهره‌گیری از منابع علمی و نظرات خبرگان شناسایی و با استفاده از روش AHP وزن دهی، سپس در قالب لایه‌های مکانی در محیط GIS پردازش و با مدل تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره (MCDA) ترکیب گردید تا نقشه‌های تحلیلی نهایی به دست آید. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که مرکز بافت تاریخی کازرون، به‌واسطه مشکلات کالبدی و زیرساختی، پایین‌ترین سطح تاب‌آوری را دارد؛ درحالی‌که نواحی حاشیه‌ای وضعیت نسبتاً بهتری دارند. همچنین، ۱۲ نقطه به‌عنوان مکان‌های مناسب برای استقرار پایگاه‌های مدیریت بحران شناسایی شد و سه ناحیه به‌عنوان «کمربندهای مداخله اولویت‌دار» در سه بُعد کالبدی، محیطی و اجتماعی پیشنهاد گردید. این پژوهش علاوه بر آشکارسازی وضعیت شکننده بافت تاریخی کازرون، با تلفیق سه بُعد تاب‌آوری در یک چارچوب مکانی-تحلیلی، الگویی نوین برای سنجش و ارتقای تاب‌آوری بافت‌های تاریخی ارائه می‌دهد. بدین ترتیب، تحقیق حاضر شکاف موجود در ادبیات تاب‌آوری شهری ایران را پوشش داده و می‌تواند مبنای تصمیم‌گیری سیاست‌گذاران و مدیران شهری در حوزه‌های مدیریت بحران، بازآفرینی شهری و حفاظت میراث تاریخی قرار گیرد.

https://gsd.uma.ac.ir/article_4186_8f23d0daeba4fdd7b8c1588b6accb57f.pdf

دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی جغرافیا و توسعه فضایی 3060-7523 2 1 2025 05 14 Evaluation of Economic and Physical Policies for the Regeneration of Dilapidated and Historical Fabrics in Gorgan city ارزیابی سیاست های اقتصادی و کالبدی بازآفرینی بافت فرسوده و تاریخی شهر گرگان 79 96 4187 10.22098/gsd.2025.17990.1092 FA فاطمه قره قاشی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران 0009-0002-0161-3709 جعفر میرکتولی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران خدارحم بزی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران Journal Article 2024 11 27 Extended Abstract Introduction Uncontrolled urban growth, socio-economic transformations, and rapid technological developments have led to the deterioration and functional decline of many historic urban fabrics that once served as key economic and social centers. This phenomenon not only reduces the quality of life for residents in these areas but also gradually undermines their historical and cultural value. In Iran, this issue holds particular significance. Deteriorated and historic urban fabrics in many cities across the country have progressively faced a range of challenges, including insufficient urban services, physical disorganization, economic decline, and the degradation of social environments. Historic cities such as Isfahan, Shiraz, and Gorgan, which possess rich architectural and cultural heritage, are now grappling with the problem of urban decay. Urban regeneration policies in Iran aim to preserve these historic areas, revive their cultural and economic values, and enhance the quality of life for local residents. Gorgan, with its deep historical and cultural roots, is among the cities seriously affected by the deterioration of its historic urban fabric. Currently, more than 681 hectares of old, deteriorated, and disorganized urban areas in Gorgan have been identified as being under serious threat from both natural and human-induced hazards. In light of population growth and the city’s physical expansion over recent decades, the primary objective of this study is to evaluate and analyze the economic and physical policies for the regeneration of deteriorated and historic urban fabrics in the city of Gorgan. Methodology The present research is applied in terms of its objective and descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature and methodology. The required data were collected through both documentary-library studies and fieldwork methods, including observation and questionnaires. According to the most recent statistical data, the statistical population of this study includes 13,777 residents living in the historical neighborhoods of Gorgan. Based on Cochran’s formula, the sample size was determined to be 374 individuals. Skewness and kurtosis tests were used to examine the normality of the data. For data analysis, SPSS version 22 was employed. To test the research hypotheses, one-sample t-tests, Pearson correlation tests, and regression analysis were utilized. Results and discussion The results of the Pearson correlation test indicated a significant relationship between governmental support policies and the increased willingness of residents in deteriorated areas, as well as construction stakeholders (builders and developers), to participate in regeneration efforts. A significant correlation was also observed between incentive-based policies for reconstruction, rehabilitation, and renovation and the regeneration of deteriorated and inefficient urban fabrics. Furthermore, the results of the regression analysis confirmed the positive impact of incentive-based reconstruction and rehabilitation policies on the regeneration of deteriorated and historical urban areas in Gorgan. The one-sample t-test results regarding the assessment of regeneration indicators (physical and economic) from the perspective of residents living in the deteriorated fabric revealed that the indicators of "quantitative physical," "financial physical," "quantitative economic," "qualitative economic," and "financial economic" all scored below the hypothetical average, indicating an undesirable condition. Only the "qualitative physical" indicator was found to be at an acceptable and relatively favorable level. In the analysis of the first research question—concerning the relationship between governmental support policies and the willingness of residents and developers to participate in the regeneration of deteriorated and historical neighborhoods in Gorgan—the results suggest that this willingness is rooted in the economic and cultural needs of these areas. Such policies, through the provision of financial facilities, tax exemptions, and infrastructure development, create the necessary incentives for participation in reconstruction and contribute to a sense of security and public trust. In general, governmental support policies have the potential to revitalize the old urban fabric of Gorgan, mitigate urban decay, and increase investment and participation. Regarding the second research question, the policy of exchanging deteriorated properties for newly built homes or land in Gorgan increases residents’ motivation to participate in regeneration due to the promise of improved living conditions and enhanced economic value. This policy, by increasing investment security and urban welfare, helps preserve the cultural and historical identity of deteriorated areas and attracts greater resident participation. As for the third research question, incentive-based rehabilitation and renovation policies in Gorgan have led to increased participation from both residents and investors in the regeneration of deteriorated and historical urban areas. These policies foster regeneration by improving quality of life, increasing economic value, preserving cultural identity, and building public trust, thus creating the necessary motivation for active involvement in urban renewal efforts. Conclusion In general, the findings of this study suggest that the regeneration of deteriorated and historic urban fabrics in the city of Gorgan faces major challenges in physical, economic, and social dimensions. Despite the historical and cultural significance of these areas, their current condition—particularly in terms of infrastructure and services in the economic and physical domains—is inadequate, which hinders active resident participation in the regeneration process. To overcome these challenges, a comprehensive and integrated approach is essential to improve living conditions and enhance the quality of urban environments. Incentive-based rehabilitation and renovation policies, with a focus on improving quality of life, preserving historical identity, and increasing economic value, can play a crucial role in the regeneration of these urban fabrics. These policies can not only boost the motivation of residents and investors to engage in regeneration projects but also foster a sense of trust and social belonging, thereby enhancing safety and overall well-being in these areas. In this regard, the preservation of historical and cultural values is emphasized as a core pillar of urban regeneration, as these attributes not only help maintain urban identity but also have the potential to attract tourism and stimulate economic growth. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. A B S T R A C T Inefficient urban fabrics not only reduce quality of life and increase vulnerability to natural disasters, but also necessitate reconstruction and regeneration policies for sustainable urban development and improved living conditions. Accordingly, the main objective of this study is to evaluate and analyze the economic and physical policies of regenerating deteriorated and historical fabrics in the city of Gorgan. In terms of purpose, this research is applied, and in terms of nature and method, it is descriptive-analytical. The statistical population consists of residents of the historical and deteriorated neighborhoods in central Gorgan, with a sample size of 374 people determined using Cochran’s formula. For data analysis, SPSS software and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were employed. Findings revealed that government support policies—such as financial facilities, tax exemptions, and supportive infrastructure—had a direct role in increasing the willingness of residents and investors to participate in the regeneration of Gorgan’s deteriorated fabrics. These policies, by reducing the economic risks of projects and enhancing investment security, strengthened participation incentives. In addition, property-based incentive policies, especially the scheme of exchanging deteriorated properties for new housing or land, had a significant impact on boosting residents’ motivation to participate and enhancing social sustainability. Regeneration projects in Gorgan have led to improvements in indicators and functional performance. Although these improvements have not completely resolved existing problems, they represent a significant step toward improving quality of life and achieving sustainable regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics. Extended Abstract Introduction Uncontrolled urban growth, socio-economic transformations, and rapid technological developments have led to the deterioration and functional decline of many historic urban fabrics that once served as key economic and social centers. This phenomenon not only reduces the quality of life for residents in these areas but also gradually undermines their historical and cultural value. In Iran, this issue holds particular significance. Deteriorated and historic urban fabrics in many cities across the country have progressively faced a range of challenges, including insufficient urban services, physical disorganization, economic decline, and the degradation of social environments. Historic cities such as Isfahan, Shiraz, and Gorgan, which possess rich architectural and cultural heritage, are now grappling with the problem of urban decay. Urban regeneration policies in Iran aim to preserve these historic areas, revive their cultural and economic values, and enhance the quality of life for local residents. Gorgan, with its deep historical and cultural roots, is among the cities seriously affected by the deterioration of its historic urban fabric. Currently, more than 681 hectares of old, deteriorated, and disorganized urban areas in Gorgan have been identified as being under serious threat from both natural and human-induced hazards. In light of population growth and the city’s physical expansion over recent decades, the primary objective of this study is to evaluate and analyze the economic and physical policies for the regeneration of deteriorated and historic urban fabrics in the city of Gorgan. Methodology The present research is applied in terms of its objective and descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature and methodology. The required data were collected through both documentary-library studies and fieldwork methods, including observation and questionnaires. According to the most recent statistical data, the statistical population of this study includes 13,777 residents living in the historical neighborhoods of Gorgan. Based on Cochran’s formula, the sample size was determined to be 374 individuals. Skewness and kurtosis tests were used to examine the normality of the data. For data analysis, SPSS version 22 was employed. To test the research hypotheses, one-sample t-tests, Pearson correlation tests, and regression analysis were utilized. Results and discussion The results of the Pearson correlation test indicated a significant relationship between governmental support policies and the increased willingness of residents in deteriorated areas, as well as construction stakeholders (builders and developers), to participate in regeneration efforts. A significant correlation was also observed between incentive-based policies for reconstruction, rehabilitation, and renovation and the regeneration of deteriorated and inefficient urban fabrics. Furthermore, the results of the regression analysis confirmed the positive impact of incentive-based reconstruction and rehabilitation policies on the regeneration of deteriorated and historical urban areas in Gorgan. The one-sample t-test results regarding the assessment of regeneration indicators (physical and economic) from the perspective of residents living in the deteriorated fabric revealed that the indicators of "quantitative physical," "financial physical," "quantitative economic," "qualitative economic," and "financial economic" all scored below the hypothetical average, indicating an undesirable condition. Only the "qualitative physical" indicator was found to be at an acceptable and relatively favorable level. In the analysis of the first research question—concerning the relationship between governmental support policies and the willingness of residents and developers to participate in the regeneration of deteriorated and historical neighborhoods in Gorgan—the results suggest that this willingness is rooted in the economic and cultural needs of these areas. Such policies, through the provision of financial facilities, tax exemptions, and infrastructure development, create the necessary incentives for participation in reconstruction and contribute to a sense of security and public trust. In general, governmental support policies have the potential to revitalize the old urban fabric of Gorgan, mitigate urban decay, and increase investment and participation. Regarding the second research question, the policy of exchanging deteriorated properties for newly built homes or land in Gorgan increases residents’ motivation to participate in regeneration due to the promise of improved living conditions and enhanced economic value. This policy, by increasing investment security and urban welfare, helps preserve the cultural and historical identity of deteriorated areas and attracts greater resident participation. As for the third research question, incentive-based rehabilitation and renovation policies in Gorgan have led to increased participation from both residents and investors in the regeneration of deteriorated and historical urban areas. These policies foster regeneration by improving quality of life, increasing economic value, preserving cultural identity, and building public trust, thus creating the necessary motivation for active involvement in urban renewal efforts. Conclusion In general, the findings of this study suggest that the regeneration of deteriorated and historic urban fabrics in the city of Gorgan faces major challenges in physical, economic, and social dimensions. Despite the historical and cultural significance of these areas, their current condition—particularly in terms of infrastructure and services in the economic and physical domains—is inadequate, which hinders active resident participation in the regeneration process. To overcome these challenges, a comprehensive and integrated approach is essential to improve living conditions and enhance the quality of urban environments. Incentive-based rehabilitation and renovation policies, with a focus on improving quality of life, preserving historical identity, and increasing economic value, can play a crucial role in the regeneration of these urban fabrics. These policies can not only boost the motivation of residents and investors to engage in regeneration projects but also foster a sense of trust and social belonging, thereby enhancing safety and overall well-being in these areas. In this regard, the preservation of historical and cultural values is emphasized as a core pillar of urban regeneration, as these attributes not only help maintain urban identity but also have the potential to attract tourism and stimulate economic growth. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. بافت‌های ناکارآمد باعث افت کیفیت زندگی و آسیب‌پذیری در برابر بلایای طبیعی می‌شوند؛ بنابراین بازسازی و اجرای سیاست‌های بازآفرینی برای توسعه پایدار شهری و بهبود شرایط ضروری است. ازاین‌رو هدف اصلی پـژوهش حاضر، ارزیابی و تحلیل سیاست‌های اقتصادی و کالبدی بازآفرینی بافت‌های فرسوده و تاریخی در شهر گرگان می‌باشد. این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت و روش، به شکل مطالعات توصیفی- تحلیلی می‌باشد. جامعه آماری این پژوهش را ساکنین محلات بافت تاریخی و فرسوده مرکز شهر گرگان تشکیل می‌دهند که با توجه به فرمول کوکران حجم نمونه 374 نفر می‌باشند. برای تحلیل داده‌ها، از نرم‌افزار SPSS و مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری (SEM) بهره گرفته‌شده است. یافته‌ها نشان داد که سیاست‌های حمایتی دولت از جمله ارائه تسهیلات مالی، معافیت‌های مالیاتی و زیرساخت‌های حمایتی، نقش مستقیمی در افزایش تمایل ساکنان و سرمایه‌گذاران برای مشارکت در بازآفرینی بافت‌های فرسوده گرگان داشته است. این سیاست‌ها با کاهش ریسک اقتصادی پروژه‌ها و افزایش امنیت سرمایه‌گذاری، انگیزه مشارکت را تقویت می‌کنند. همچنین سیاست‌های مبتنی بر مشوق‌های مالکیتی، به‌ویژه طرح معاوضه املاک فرسوده با زمین یا مسکن نوساز، به شکل معناداری بر ارتقای انگیزه مشارکت ساکنان و افزایش پایداری اجتماعی اثرگذار بوده است. پروژه‌های بازآفرینی در شهر گرگان موجب بهبود شاخص‌های و عملکردی شده است. هرچند این بهبودها به‌طور کامل مشکلات موجود را رفع نکرده، اما گام مؤثری در ارتقای کیفیت زندگی و بازآفرینی پایدار بافت‌های فرسوده محسوب می‌شود.

https://gsd.uma.ac.ir/article_4187_5bdcd0e27451b52bcfcc545c636e8eb4.pdf

دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی جغرافیا و توسعه فضایی 3060-7523 2 1 2025 05 14 Analysis of the Spatial Structure of Rural Settlement Population in Ilam Province with a Justice-Oriented Approach تحلیلی بر ساختار فضایی جمعیت سکونتگاه‌های روستایی استان ایلام با رویکرد عدالت‌محوری 97 115 4195 10.22098/gsd.2025.17784.1090 FA زریر صالح پور گروه معماری و عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، واحد یاسوج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، یاسوج، ایران زهرا عبدالهی گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه هنر تهران، تهران، ایران بهاره رسنواد گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2024 11 27 A B S T R A C T Understanding the dynamics, distribution, and mobility trends of population as a fundamental component of spatial organization is crucial for territorial planning. This study aims to analyze the spatial structure of the rural population in Ilam Province and to investigate the role of various research variables in its current state. This research is applied in nature, and data were collected through both library and field methods, relying on a combination of quantitative and qualitative information. Descriptive statistics revealed a higher concentration of the rural population compared to the number of rural points in the province. Additionally, the results of the global Moran's I statistic (I= 0/131) indicate a clustered pattern in the distribution of the rural population. Specifically, villages with larger populations are located in close proximity to each other, forming highly concentrated clusters, especially around Ilam city and other major urban centers in the province. Furthermore, the results of the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) show that the independent variables have varying degrees of influence. Factors such as distance from active faults (R2= 0/34, adjusted R2= 0/25) and distance from communication roads (R2= 0/48, adjusted R2= 0/40) demonstrated a relative level of accuracy. In contrast, access to services (R2= 0/68, adjusted R2= 0/59) and distance from the provincial capital (R2= 0/60, adjusted R2= 0/54) showed an acceptable level of accuracy in modeling the spatial relationships of factors influencing the rural population distribution in the province. The overall findings indicate the formation of population clusters with a stronger pull toward the north and northwest of the province, particularly in the villages surrounding Ilam city. Extended Abstract Introduction Population and its related changes are among the significant issues in human settlements. Attention to population changes and their causes, from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives, can lead to balance in the spatial distribution of the population. Therefore, understanding the spatial distribution of population, analyzing its spatial patterns and trends in different regions, as well as the factors influencing these occurrences, is a crucial and noteworthy topic in spatial planning, playing a vital role in territorial planning. Hence, considering the importance of regional planning in balancing activity structures, infrastructure, and population, and to optimally influence the pattern of population and activity distribution at spatial scales and create an integrated spatial structure, the present study aims to investigate the spatial distribution of rural points and population across Ilam Province and to examine the role of research variables in its current state, emphasizing a justice-oriented perspective. This will help to identify and explain the current spatial distribution of the rural population and its potential influencing factors in this province. Methodology The research method, given its nature, is descriptive-analytical, and considering its objective, it is an applied research. Data collection was carried out through both library and field methods, relying on quantitative and qualitative data and information. Accordingly, a mixed-method approach was used for information gathering in this research. In this study, various methods were employed for data analysis in Arc GIS. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the apparent status of the distribution of rural points and population; specifically, Mean Center was used to show the geographic center or center of gravity of a set of features, Standard Distance was used to measure the degree of concentration or dispersion of features around the Mean Center, and Standard Deviational Ellipse was used to measure the trend in a set of points or areas. Additionally, the Nearest Neighbor Unit (ANN) method and Moran's I were used to understand the spatial distribution pattern of rural points and population, local spatial autocorrelation was used to identify clustered patterns (points with similar values) and individual points (points with different values), hot spot analysis was used to show the spatial distribution of the dominant pattern in population spatial distribution, and finally, Geographically Weighted Regression was used to determine the spatial relationships between independent and dependent variables. Results and discussion The results of the present study showed that the spatial distribution of rural points and population in Ilam Province does not follow a homogeneous and balanced pattern, and their spatial distributions do not coincide. According to the descriptive statistics results, there was a difference between the mean center of rural points and population, indicating an imbalanced population distribution in the villages of this province. Furthermore, the standard distance of the population showed greater compactness compared to rural points. This compactness was towards the northwest of the province and Ilam city, indicating that the population is distributed according to this population pole. Also, the directional distribution of population and common points jointly has a northwest-southeast direction. The results of Nearest Neighbor and Moran's I index for examining the spatial distribution pattern of rural points and population also indicate an imbalanced and clustered distribution of rural points and population across the province. Local spatial autocorrelation results showed that points with high populations, which are also surrounded by high-population points (High-High Cluster), are generally concentrated around Ilam county and city, indicating the concentration of high-population villages in this area of the province. Moreover, the examination of hot spots through Hot Spot analysis also revealed that hot and densely populated clusters are generally located in the north and northwest of the province, centered around important and main cities of the province, including Ilam city. As a result, population hot spots have formed in these areas. Cold population spots also tend towards the south and southeast of the province, with a cold population center and cluster forming around Mehran city and the southeast of Dehloran county. Geographically Weighted Regression results, based on the R² value, indicated that the independent variables of the study have varying effects on the spatial distribution of the rural population in the province. Among these, access to services and distance from the county center had a more significant impact. Specifically, approximately 48% and 34% of the variations in the spatial distribution of the rural population in Ilam Province were influenced by the human variable of communication roads and the natural factor variable of distance from active faults, respectively. In contrast, the two factors of access to services and distance from the provincial center, with local R² values of 0.60 and 0.68 respectively, had a greater impact and were highly successful in explaining the variations in the dependent variable of spatial population distribution. Conclusion The results of the present study indicated that the spatial distribution pattern of the rural population in Ilam Province lacks spatial balance and equilibrium. The rural population distribution is clustered and concentrated around several specific poles, especially Ilam city in the northwest of the province. In analyzing the reasons for this situation, it should be noted that population distribution is not only a reflection of ecological and topographical attractions but also a complex outcome of the interaction of infrastructural, economic, social, and managerial factors. Thus, contrary to the common perception of the dominant role of natural and geomorphological factors in rural population distribution, the results of this research emphasize that the analysis of the spatial structure of population cannot rely solely on physical or natural variables but must consider the interaction between physical and functional factors, especially in the context of relationships with urban centers. This study also showed that human and infrastructural factors, particularly proximity to important urban centers and access to services, play a major role in the spatial distribution of the rural population in Ilam Province. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. آگاهی یافتن از پویایی، گستردگی و روندهای حرکتی جمعیت به‌عنوان یکی از اجزای مهم سازمان فضایی نقش مهمی در برنامه‌ریزی‌های سرزمینی دارد. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی ساختار فضایی جمعیت سکونتگاه‌های روستایی استان ایلام و نقش متغیرهای پژوهش در وضعیت موجود آن است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی بوده و جمع‌آوری داده‌ها به دو صورت کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی و با تکیه‌بر داده‌ها و اطلاعات کمی و کیفی انجام پذیرفته است. نتایج آمار توصیفی نشان داد جمعیت روستایی از فشردگی بیش‌تری نسبت به نقاط روستایی استان ایلام برخوردار است. همچنین با توجه به نتایج آماره موران شاخص کل توزیع جمعیت روستایی با مقدار 131/0 دارای الگوی خوشه‌ای است به‌طوری‌که با توجه به نتایج، روستاهای با جمعیت بالا در کنار هم قرار داشته و از روند خوشه‌ای با تمرکز بالا در اطراف ایلام و شهرهای مهم استان برخوردارند. همچنین با توجه به نتایج رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی متغیرهای مستقل پژوهش دارای اثرگذاری متفاوتی هستند. به‌طوری‌که عوامل فاصله از گسل‌های فعال و راه‌های ارتباطی با R² برابر با 34/0 و 48/0 و R² تعدیل‌شده برابر با 25/0 و 40/0 دارای دقت نسبی و دو عامل دسترسی به خدمات و فاصله از مرکز استان با R² برابر با 68/0 و 60/0 و R² تعدیل‌شده برابر با 59/0 و 54/0 دارای دقت قابل قبولی در مدل‌سازی روابط فضایی عوامل مؤثر در توزیع فضایی جمعیت روستایی استان هستند. نتایج کلی پژوهش بیانگر شکل‌گیری خوشه‌های جمعیتی با کشش بیش‌تر به سمت شمال و شمال غرب استان و به‌خصوص روستاهای اطراف ایلام است

https://gsd.uma.ac.ir/article_4195_2a0aecee11661cac2a1dec55ee8fce53.pdf